NFL Pick’ems: Week 4

Last Week’s Picks: 9-7

Overall Picks Record: 30-18

It was a wild week in the NFL with several unexpected performances from backup QBs. Now that we’ve got a look at some of the new signal-callers, picks should be a little less unpredictable this week.

Here we go!

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) @ Green Bay Packers (3-0)

Winner: Green Bay Packers

The Packers defense is allowing the second-fewest points per game (11.7) and is coming off another superb performance. LB Za’Darius Smith, who has three sacks this season, is expected to play after dealing with a calf injury all week. That’s big for the Pack, as Smith has not only provided a solid pass-rush but is also an excellent run-stuffing OLB. While Aaron Rodgers hasn’t exactly been lighting the up the scoreboard, something he’s acknowledged in post-game interviews, he has been efficient and safe with the ball. The Packers running backs have been churning out some tough yards, and so far the formula has been working for Green Bay.

The Eagles are a beat-up bunch of birds at the moment, as they’re missing some key players on both sides of the ball. They will get WR Alshon Jeffery back this week, which is huge for an offense that has seen a number of drops in critical moments. However, the defense is missing its top cornerback Ronald Darby, as well as rotational-starters on the defensive line. The Eagles are going to need a transcendent performance from QB Carson Wentz to take out the undefeated Packers in Lambeau.

Washington Redskins (0-3) @ New York Giants (1-2)

Winner: New York Giants

Will we see Dwayne Haskins’ first NFL action this Sunday? Probably not. Despite the temptation – after seeing what Daniel Jones did for the Giants in his first start – the Redskins are surprisingly staying patient with Haskins. Case Keenum had been playing efficiently up until last week’s game against the Bears. It was a rough one, as Khalil Mack was running around the Skins’ offensive linemen like they were dummy bags in training camp. Under the immense pressure, Keenum showed why he is who he is by throwing some awful interceptions. The lone bright spot for this team, spectacular rookie receiver “Scary” Terry McLaurin, is a game-time decision with a hamstring injury. The third-round pick became the first player in NFL history (really?) to record at least five receptions and a touchdown in their first three games.

The storybook ending to Daniel Jones’ first career start has the league buzzing about how good the rookie really is, or isn’t. The Redskins defense is giving up the third-most points per game (31), and should be another soft matchup for Jones to get his feet wet. That being said, with Saquon Barkley out, it could be a struggle for the Giants ground game. Unless Jones far surpasses expectations, this should be a close, divisional battle between two sub-par teams. The Giants get the edge as they have some spark of momentum with the new blood at QB, while the Redskins are dealing with injuries and embarrassment after last week.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) @ Detroit Lions (2-0-1)

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs

The Lions defense is ranked in the top-10 in yards, points allowed and sacks per game. From a matchup standpoint, they may be one of the only defenses that could slow down the merciless Chiefs attack. Unfortunately for Detroit, the most important cog in their defense, corner Darius Slay, is banged up and practiced in a limited capacity all week. With a less-than-100% Slay, Mahomes and the Chiefs should continue rolling at their 30+ PPG clip. With a less-than-100% Slay, Mahomes and the Chiefs should continue rolling at their 30+ PPG clip.

The one thing that could hurt the Chiefs in this game is the absence of LT Eric Fisher. Cameron Irving, in his 5th year, will replace Fisher. Andy Reid will find a way to send Irving some help on that side, and Mahomes’ improvisation and precision throwing on the run should be enough to overcome the difficulties that presents.

Tennessee Titans (1-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

Winner: Tennessee Titans

While both of these teams have had disappointing starts to the season, this week is a huge opportunity to get back on track in what could be a pivotal game for either team’s playoff hopes. The Falcons have some strange contradicting statistics at the moment. On offense and defense respectively, they’re simultaneously ranked in the top-10 in yards gained/allowed, while bottom-10 in points for/against. This means despite doing very well yardage-wise on both sides of the ball, Atlanta is having trouble finishing drives on offense, while struggling to stop teams from getting some form of points, whether by touchdown or field-goal, on a per-drive basis. To make matters worse, the Falcons lost starting safety Keanu Neal to a second-consecutive season-ending injury last week.

The Titans looked out-of-sync against the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football. Defensively, they seemed unsure of how to defend against the eccentric Gardner Minshew. But more importantly, the offense looked about as lackluster as they’ve ever been under Vrabel and unproven offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. The Titans need to feed Derrick Henry in this one, and get Mariota into some bootlegs and RPO’s to take advantage of Neal’s absence.

Cleveland Browns (1-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

Winner: Baltimore Ravens

It’s becoming clearer by the week that the Browns have a ways to go before they can compete with top dogs of the league. Freddie Kitchens has looked unprepared in his playcalling as well as his interactions with the media. Repeatedly saying, “It was a bad call”, in an attempt to explain the Browns’ offensive failures is not the way to build player confidence in you, or your scheme. Baker Mayfield has not looked comfortable in this offense so far, and stellar RB Nick Chubb has not had the impact this season compared to the last half of 2018. It’s going to take a while, perhaps a whole season before the Browns offense begins to reach its full potential. They have some holes on the offensive line that can be fatal for an offense with a developing quarterback.

The Ravens, on the other hand, have done a brilliant job in surrounding QB Lamar Jackson with the tools needed for his success in this league, namely a stout defense, an athletic offensive line, and a potent rushing attack. The second-year quarterback has taken the job and run with it, showing major improvements in his vertical accuracy through three games. The Ravens defense was shown up by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last week – as has every other defense to face that buzzsaw. CB Jimmy Smith continues to miss time with a knee sprain, which may give Odell Beckham Jr. a chance to make his mark on this game. Ultimately, the Ravens are a step ahead of this Browns team on both sides of the ball.

Oakland Raiders (1-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (2-1)

Winner: Indianapolis Colts

Jacoby Brissett has firmly taken over the leadership role of this team sans Andrew Luck, and the team has rallied around him as a result. The Colts have a top-5 offensive line, and it’s been working wonders for both Brissett and RB Marlon Mack, ranked 3rd rushing yards (299) among all backs. The Colts are missing some key starters (T.Y. Hilton, Malik Hooker), but the Raiders are not whole either. With Brissett’s efficient play at quarterback and Mack’s punishing run-syle, the Raiders defense should wilt by the second half.

New England Patriots (3-0) @ Buffalo Bills (3-0)

Winner: New England Patriots

Here it is! The measuring stick of all measuring sticks for the undefeated Bills. If a team wants to know exactly how good they are in the grand scheme of things, playing the Patriots is a quick way to find out. Despite the 3-0 record, the Bills opponents thus far have a combined 1-8 record – not exactly stiff competition. This game is likely to be a big wake up call, particularly for Josh Allen, who’s turnovers so far have been forgiven in large part due to an elite Bills defense. Against Tom Brady and the Patriots offense, turnovers are the first way to ensure a loss.

Carolina Panthers (1-2) @ Houston Texans (2-1)

Winner: Houston Texans

While Kyle Allen came out with guns blazing in relief of Cam Newton, throwing for four touchdowns in Week 3, this will be a much tougher matchup for the second-year QB making his third career start. The Texans are a legitimate contender with a ferocious pass rush, so Allen will need to be on his toes all game.

Once again last week, Deshaun Watson brought his team back in the second half, this time against a solid Chargers team. When the Texans most need a play, time and again it’s Watson eluding multiple tacklers, using his legs, then finding Hopkins or Fuller for big yardage. Second-year TE Dion Akins got into the mix with two touchdowns, including a backbreaking 53-yarder in the 4th quarter. The Panthers secondary is not built to cover the aforementioned elite receiving duo of Hopkins/Fuller, as a result, both could top the 100-yard mark in this game.

Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) @ Miami Dolphins (0-3)

Winner: Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers may see the return of Melvin Gordon, who looked to be in “Beast Mode” shape during practice this week. With or without Gordon, this Chargers team should dispose of the Dolphins rather easily. Miami is on a record-setting pace for being the worst defense ever, and things don’t look to be getting any better.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (3-0)

Winner: Los Angeles Rams

Even with Rams’ usage of Todd Gurley being significantly down from a year ago, the Rams have found a way to make it work. RB Malcolm Brown has contributed to the ground game, while Gurley has shown flashes of his dominant form. While Jared Goff still has some growing to do, he’s managed the offense efficiently so far. It seems because he’s already reached a Super Bowl, people tend to forget he’s only in his fourth year, and will be turning 25 years old this October. He can already make every throw, and has one of the best offensive minds, Sean McVay, in his ear all game. This relationship still has a lot to offer for this franchise.

While Jameis Winston seems to have stabilized the offense in the past couple of weeks, this is a mismatch across the board for the Buccs. Defensively, they simply don’t have the depth to defend against the Rams’ trio of receivers, while also minding the Gurley/Brown tandem. They’ll need another huge day from Mike Evans, and hope the Rams defense has an off-day. If those two things occur, there’s a chance the Buccs can win in a shootout.

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (0-2-1)

Winner: Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks may have let some overconfidence seep into the ranks last week, as they were thoroughly outplayed at home against a Saints team missing their heart-and-soul leader, Drew Brees. They’ll get a chance at reprieve this week, as they go on the road against the 0-3 Cardinals. Russell Wilson has been on fire to start this season, ranked 3rd in passer-rating (119.6) with a perfect 7:0 INT ratio through three games. The Hawks have been middling on defense, and have yet to find their identity. They should have one of their better days against the rookie Kyler Murray, who has been indecisive with the ball in his first three starts.

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) @ Chicago Bears (2-1)

Winner: Minnesota Vikings

Third-year RB Dalvin Cook has been sensational thus far, leading the league in rushing YPG (125) and powering the Vikings to a 2-1 start. Cook’s speed is on another level, reminiscent of a young Chris Johnson. Yes, the 2,000-yard-season, “CJ2K” Chris Johnson. The Vikings O-line deserves some credit as well, but Cook’s ability to hit the hole quicker than any back in the league right now is what makes this ground-game special. Despite this, Kirk Cousins has amazingly mediocre through three games. Facing Khalil Mack and the Bears defense, Cousins will need to get the ball out quickly and let his playmakers go to work.

The Bears could be without their star DT Akiem Hicks – bad news when looking to contain the league’s leading rusher. Chicago’s offense was able to get back on track against the Redskins on Monday Night Football. Mitch Trubisky connected with Taylor Gabriel for three touchdowns. However, that will likely be an aberration for this season, as the Redskins secondary has been one of the worst in the league so far. There won’t be many wide-open receivers against this Vikings defense, so we’ll see if Trubisky is really getting back in the groove, or just had a good week against a bad defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) @ Denver Broncos (0-3)

Winner: Denver Broncos

The Jalen Ramsey saga has only gotten worse by the day, as the corner has progressively found reasons to be absent from the team. While mostly legitimate, it seems like the corner doesn’t want to be too close right now after asking to be traded just last week. Gardner Minshew has been a pleasant surprise for the Jags, but is facing a desperate Broncos defense with season and pride on the line. Flacco hasn’t been bad, and is growing in sync with the ever-consistent Emmanuel Sanders. Denver, fighting for the lives, should pull out a close victory here at home.

Dallas Cowboys (3-0) @ New Orleans Saints (2-1)

Winner: Dallas Cowboys

Like the Bills, the Cowboys are 3-0 against opponents with a combined record of 1-8. However, recent history tells us the Cowboys are just taking care of who’s been put in front of them, and should be given the credit when matched up against a higher-class of team. The Saints are missing Drew Brees, but employ one of the league’s better backups in Teddy Bridgewater, so the Cowboys can’t afford to asleep here.

Without Brees, the Saints immediately look to the defense to be their strength, which has the talent to be a top-10 unit this season. Sean Payton reaffirmed his greatness with a victory in Seattle last week. However, the defense/special teams were the unsung heroes, scoring a touchdown each, and keeping Russell Wilson quiet for three quarters. Stopping Zeke Elliot and the Cowboys is a unique challenge on its own, so the Saints will need some more magic from the unsung guys to pull out a victory here.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3)

Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

This should be a tight divisional battle between two desperate teams – so who will get off the “schneid” here on Monday Night Football? The Steelers are still figuring out how to best utilize the weapons in this offense without Big Ben. While Mason Rudolph has performed admirably so far, the Steelers offense just can’t seem to put it all together. James Connor has yet to top 43 yards rushing in a game this season, and JuJu Smith-Schuster has not had the signature game that we expect from a blooming top target. This could be the game for Smith-Schuster, as the Bengals are surrendering over 400 yards per game defensively.

The Bengals’ Joe Mixon has burned the Steelers in the past, but the Bengals offensive line has undergone some changes since then. This game will be up to Andy Dalton to get rid of the ball quickly before an underachieving, but talents and hungry Steelers pass-rush can get home.

Note: This page is updated throughout the week to account for the latest injury updates and news around the league.