NFL Pick’ems: Week 7

Last Week’s Picks: 9-5

Overall Picks Record: 53-40

So close to doubling up this week! Still, it’s good to get back on the winning side of things.

Let’s roll!

Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) @ Denver Broncos (2-4)

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs

Two weeks ago, this matchup would have looked like a guaranteed win on the schedule for KC. Now, the Chiefs have lost two in a row, while Denver has somewhat come back from the dead of 0-4 with back-to-back wins. What led to this drastic reversal? Starting with KC, Patrick Mahomes has a nasty ankle injury that he has reaggravated three weeks in the row. At first, it was affecting his mobility severely, so much that teams switched to playing man coverage without fear of Mahomes scrambling around. Then, it began to affect his accuracy to the point where Mahomes was almost unrecognizable as a passer.

It doesn’t all fall on the QB’s shoulders, though. The balance has not been there for the Chiefs past two weeks, as they’ve averaged just 12 rushing attempts per game. The Chiefs were never out of either game to where they had to abandon the run, and you would think it would be smart to establish the run when your QB is struggling with an injury that is affecting his accuracy. This is an old flaw of Andy Reid’s which, after all these years, it appears he may not have learned from. Lastly, the defense has been atrocious defending against the run, allowing 161 rushing yards per game (30th).

If Denver can establish the run as the Colts and Texans did, and keep Mahomes off the field, there is no better way to beat Kansas City. Further, they’ll need to put some hits on Mahomes and make him uncomfortable early. Otherwise, even on one ankle, “Showtime” is still good enough to lead this team to victory.

Oakland Raiders (3-2) @ Green Bay Packers (5-1)

Winner: Green Bay Packers

Both these teams are dealing with some impactful injuries of late. For the Packers, it’s the receiving core that has been decimated, as Davante Adams continues to miss time, while Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdez-Scantling are questions to play in this game. The Packers had to sign Ryan Grant this week to be able to field four wide receivers. The good news is Aaron Rodgers appears to be trending up towards top his top form, elevating the offense with his pinpoint accuracy and veteran leadership. While there was much controversy surrounding the Packers’ win over Detroit and the referees, they were able to pull out a hard-fought win against a solid divisional opponent. The defense continues to show up in crucial moments, and Rodgers continues to perform in the clutch.

The Raiders have certainly been a pleasant surprise so far at 3-2, and Jon Gruden has the team playing some solid football. Still. the Packers at home is a tough matchup for any team. They’re also dealing with some injuries on the offensive line, with Tackle Trent Brown doubtful to play. The Raiders do have an advantage here, however, as they’re averaging 134 rushing yards per game (8th). While the Packers defense has seen improvement this season, it’s been mostly in the secondary and pass-rush. Against the run, they’re rather generous, ranked 23rd in rushing yards allowed per game. If the Raiders can prevent from getting behind early, and pound away with spectacular rookie Josh Adams, they may be able to steal one in Lambeau from a wounded Packers team.

Los Angeles Rams (3-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-5)

Winner: Los Angeles Rams

It’s official. The Falcons are done, and after the Super Bowl debacle and now an 0-5 start, Dan Quinn has to be in some hot water. These next few weeks will be crucial to the head coach’s future in Atlanta. If it’s clear the team leadership has truly broken and the players are no longer responding with purpose, it would not be a shock to see Quinn ousted. If the Falcons somehow manage to fight back and end as a .500 club, then it’s certainly within reason that owner Arthur Blank would give the respected head coach another shot.

When it comes down to it, Quinn is a defensive-minded guy and the Falcons are allowing 31 points per game; only the Dolphins – widely considered to be tanking this year – allow more. Offensive Coordinator Dirk Koetter has Matt Ryan averaging an absurd 43 passing attempts per game, which would be good for third-most in NFL history for a single season. The players are not without blame, as the offense is a -5 in turnover differential. The Falcons run game is non-existent, and the defense has been soft – routinely missing tackles and assignments. It may be house-cleaning time in Atlanta in the not-too-distant future.

It was quite a week for L.A. after they pulled the trigger on a blockbuster deal for Jalen Ramsey. The newly rebuilt secondary will get an early test, as Falcons are 2nd in the league passing at over 317 yards per game. Conversely, the Rams trident of receivers led by Cooper Kupp should shred this defense for big-time yardage. The Falcons will be without their top corner Desmond Trufant, a back-breaker for a defense that is lacking playmaking ability. The Falcons defense will likely focus in on Kupp, so Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods could have big days well.

San Francisco 49ers (5-0) Washington Redskins (1-5)

Winner: San Francisco 49ers

Kyle Shanahan returns the place where he disliked pretty much everything, except coaching with his dad and some of the players, he said earlier this week. He’ll get a chance to show everyone what he meant by that statement, as his offense roars into this lopsided matchup against his former employer. The Niners have been cruising, as four of their five victories have come by 13 points or more. This game should be no different, as they have the Redskins outmatched on both sides by quite a margin.

Bill Calahan picked up his first win as the interim head coach after Jay Gruden was relieved of his duties last week. The Redskins barely escaped defeat to the lowly Dolphins after Brian Flores decided to go for the “win”, by going for a two-point conversion down by one point. There’s a chance Washington goes winless for the rest of the season and nobody would be shocked. Even more concerning, fewer and fewer fans in Washington would even care at this point.

Houston Texans (4-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-2)

Winner: Houston Texans

With the victory over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last week, Deshaun Watson and the Texans have elevated themselves to being considered the primary threat to the Patriots’ long-lived supremacy over the AFC. Watson showed resilience and poise, leading his team back from an early 14-point deficit. As Mahomes’ ankle injury worsened, the Texans defense took over and finished the job, winning 31-24 over the favored Chiefs. Watson is arguably the favorite, along with Russell Wilson, for League MVP. This is a critical early matchup between division rivals, one that could propel the Texans to an eventual AFC South division championship.

After shocking the Chiefs in Arrowhead two weeks ago, the Colts dropped the ball against the Raiders, losing 31-24. While the Colts have a top running offense as well as an efficient passing game – especially with T.Y. Hilton returning – the Texans are a bit more polished in multiple areas. In fact, Houston is just as productive on the ground in terms of yardage, with a more explosive aerial attack to back it up. If Indy has a chance, they’ll need to establish the run early and often to keep the game out of Watson’s hands.

Minnesota Vikings (4-2) @ Detroit Lions (2-2-1)

Winner: Minnesota Vikings

The Lions and their fans have been fuming all week, feeling robbed of a victory after last week’s loss to Green Bay in which there were multiple officiating errors that ended up costing Detroit severely. Officiating errors or not, the Lions had opportunities to put the game out of the refs’ control by scoring touchdowns, instead of having to settle for five field goals – three of which were inside the red zone. Without question, the officiating had an impact; but if it’s not the officiating stopping the Lions then it’s themselves, and if it’s not themselves then it’s some other external reason. We’ve seen this story for decades with Detroit. When are they just going to be good enough to win consistently, without making excuses? Lions fans have had to ask that question for far too long now.

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings passing attack has been revived after a sleepy start to the season. It only took both Vikings receivers to publicly, yet indirectly, call out their quarterback for his inexcusable poor play during the first quarter of the season. Last week, Cousins threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns, three to wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who had trade rumors swirling around him just days prior. While it was an impressive performance, it came against a decimated Eagles secondary fielding backups as starters. If Darius Slay is able to return this week for Detroit, this will be a legitimate test to see what kind of form the Vikings’ passing game is in.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-6)

Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars moved on from premiere corner Jalen Ramsey this week, receiving max value in the process. They’ll get the Rams’ next two first-round picks, plus a fourth-rounder in 2021. Gardner Minshew II has played well for Jacksonville, when you remember he’s a rookie sixth-round pick. However, while “Minshew-Mania” has steadily increased, his completion percentage has been on a steady decline. Early on, that was his bread and butter – he wasn’t completing deep throws, but he was getting the ball to his playmakers particularly in the red zone. From 88% in his first start down just 48% last week against the Saints, Minshews needs to rediscover his game. What better opponent to make that happen than the disastrous 0-6 Bengals.

Arizona Cardinals (2-3-1) @ New York Giants (2-4)

Winner: Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have won back-to-back games, and it appears the game is beginning to slow down for Kyler Murray. Not only mentally, but physically, the kid is just faster and quicker than most defenders out there. Murray possesses a rare, dynamic skill set that is developing in front of our very eyes into something special. There’s a reason he was the first overall pick in the draft, and it’s becoming more apparent with each game. Further intrigue is the potential for the Cards defense to turn things around this week, as their best player and leader, Patrick Peterson, returns from a six-game suspension. RB Chase Edmunds has been coming on strong for Arizona the last three weeks

Miami Dolphins (0-5) @ Buffalo Bills (4-1)

Winner: Buffalo Bills

The Bills defense continues to suffocate offenses, surrendering just 275 total yards per game (3rd). DT Jordan Phillips, who was waived last season by the Dolphins, exploded for a career-high three sacks last week against the Titans. If the difference in team record wasn’t enough, Phillips will have a chance to follow up that performance with some cold-served revenge against his former team. Miami “tried” to “win” the game last week with a last-second two-point conversion against the equally disastrous Redskins. The Dolphins haven’t won since the Week 14 miracle play against the Patriots, which ended with Kenyon Drake sprinting past a now-retired Rob Gronkowski. That doesn’t change today.

Los Angeles Chargers (2-4) @ Tennessee Titans (2-4)

Winner: Los Angeles Chargers

It’s becoming more and more difficult to trust the Chargers after back-to-back losses against two seemingly inferior AFC opponents. Losing to third-string quarterback Devlin Hodges on Monday Night Football is certainly a low point a for a team that went 12-4 just last season. The defense has not been the same without star safety Derwin James, who continues to progress toward a midseason return from the Injured Reserved list. Red zone turnovers have killed the Chargers offense, leading to multiple point swings that have ultimately decided games.

It’s bleak, but luckily for the Chargers, the Titans are equals in their early dysfunction. Ryan Tannehill will start over the struggling Marcus Mariota, who was thought to be the future of the franchise. The Titans may not have completely abandoned hope for Mariota just yet, but the end days certainly feel near for the 25-year-old’s time in Tennessee. Tannehill was ousted from Miami after numerous opportunities to show he can be “the guy”. A change in quarterback has the potential to energize a team. However, with his inconsistency and inaccurate deep-to-intermediate throws, its unlikely Tannehill revives one of the league’s worst offenses right now.

Baltimore Ravens (4-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (5-1)

Winner: Seattle Seahawks

There should be fireworks aplenty in this AFC heavyweight showdown. Most intriguing is how these teams in many ways mirror each other statistically as well as philosophically; they’re giving up the same amount of points and yards on defense, give or take few; they both deploy mobile quarterbacks that can contribute to an already potent rushing attack; lastly, they both feature two of the best rushing attacks in the league.

The Seahawks are riding an MVP-worthy first half of the season for Russell Wilson, who tops in the NFL in passer rating and a touchdown-to-pick ratio of 14:0. Defensively, the Hawks are no longer the dominating presence they used to be, but are still effective enough to win behind Wilson’s extraordinary offensive production. Jadaveon Clowney has yet to get his bearings in Seattle with just one sack so far, but still has plenty of time to pay dividends for the Hawks this season and beyond.

In an effort to reverse the downward trend of their secondary, the Ravens acquired CB Marcus Peters from the Rams this week. Peters is a playmaker, leading the NFL in interceptions (25) since 2015. The rewards don’t come without risk, however, as Peters’ aggressive style is liable to give up tons of yardage through the air. For the Ravens offense, the decline in Lamar Jackson’s passing efficiency of late is concerning. As a result, Jon Harbaugh has reverted back to the dangerous strategy of letting Jackson run the ball upwards of 15 attempts per game. Dangerous in that it is incredibly difficult to stop for opposing defenses, but also in that it significantly increases the chances of the young QB suffering a severe injury. Jackson’s time will come, but in this matchup, he’s the apprentice, and Wilson is the sensei.

New Orleans Saints (5-1) @ Chicago Bears (3-2)

Winner: Chicago Bears

Sean Payton’s legacy continues to grow with each Drew-Brees-less victory he piles up. Its four in a row now for New Orleans, and Teddy Bridgewater’s revival as a legitimate starter in the NFL appears complete. However, Payton and the offense will likely be facing their toughest test yet this week in Chicago.

One-man-offense-destroyer Khalil Mack will be on the hunt at Soldier Field, looking to reverse the heavy tides of the Saints’ momentum. The unparalleled linebacker had a sub-par performance against his former team last week, as the Raiders made a point of letting anyone but Mack beat them. With talent as great as his, it’s unlikely that happens two games in a row – unless the Saints decide to deploy a similar strategy. In that case, the Bears have a plethora of pass-rushing support led by Leonard Floyd and Akiem Hicks to make the Saints pay. With Mitch Trubisky back, the Bears have enough balance to take down the formidable NFC South champions.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-3)

Winner: Philadelphia Eagles

Much like the direction of their season, half of the Cowboys’ starters on offense are questionable to play in this game. Receiver Amari Cooper is more likely to play than Randall Cobb, while the offensive line is dealing with multiple injuries. Most consequential is the status of LT Tyron Smith, who is the anchor of the offense and the Cowboys’ best overall player. Yes, the Cowboys’ best player, including Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliott, who have been found wanting against the contenders of the NFC. This is about as important as a Week 7 game can get for two hopeful contenders. Right now, both clubs are just looking to win a game much less start planning a trip to Miami, where this year’s Super Bowl will take place.

The Eagles injury woes won’t go away, as Desean Jackson along with the secondary continue to deal with nagging wounds. The defense was torched by Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense last week, leading to LB Zach Brown being cut after he made some bulletin-board material with his pre-game comments. The Eagles claim it was due to his poor play over the course of the season. Either way, it certainly wasn’t a good look for Brown when he sheepishly avoided questions about Cousins after the game. The Eagles would prefer not to promote a loser’s mentality within the locker room – and cutting a starter midway through the season certainly makes a statement. Carson Wentz is playing better football right now than Dak. The scales are ever so slightly tipped in Philly’s favor.

New England Patriots (6-0) @ New York Jets (1-4)

Winner: New England Patriots

The Jets stunned the Cowboys, and the majority of experts, with a 24-22 victory last week. The return of Sam Darnold visibly energized the team, and the strong-armed QB led his team with some outstanding throws that had been sorely missing the past three games. Darnold’s best throw came on a 92-yard strike that he dropped perfectly into the hands of Robby Anderson in stride, showing poise and why the Jets like the young man so much. Good a win as it was, this will be a much different challenge for Darnold, one that will test his mental preparation and fortitude to it’s limit.

The Patriots defense is trending toward historically great. While there is an argument that can be made of the overall futility of the Patriots’ opponents this season, what they have been able to do against that competition is impressive. We know what this team is capable of; the personnel hasn’t changed much from last season, so that argument does not hold much weight in reality. This is a historically great defense. Will they be tested at some point during the season? Absolutely. But at the end of the day, it’s Bill Belichick. It’s Stephon Gilmore. It’s Devin McCourty, Jamie Collins, and Kyle Van Noy. These guys are ballers, through and through, and they know not only how to win, but how to win big.

Note: This page is updated throughout the week to account for the latest injury updates and news around the league.