NFL Pick’ems: Week 9

Last Week’s Picks: 14-1

Overall Pick Record: 76-46

We’re halfway through the season and this was the best week so far picks-wise. However, aside from a slightly risky pick like the Eagles beating the favored Bills, it was was a fairly predictable round of matchups. This week will be much more challenging, as most of the games are substantially closer from a competitive standpoint.

Let’s jump into it!

San Francisco 49ers (7-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)

Winner: San Francisco 49ers

Midseason is usually when the injuries begin piling up for most teams. Fortunately for San Francisco, they’re much more prepared to deal with missing starters than Arizona. The Cardinals will be without both their starting running backs David Johnson and Chase Edmonds. As a result, they made a deadline deal for RB Kenyan Drake from the Dolphins for a sixth-round pick. Drake is a talented back that can also be used in the passing game, but it will take him a couple of weeks to settle into Arizona’s offense. The Cards will also be without LT Justin Murray who was replacing starter Marcus Gilbert, meaning they’ll be down to their third-string tackle in this game against a ferocious 49ers front. It was a productive second quarter of the season for the Cards, but like their matchup last week against the Saints, they’re facing a different caliber of opponent in the Niners.

For the Niners, their injuries are more manageable because of their overall team depth. They’ll be without starting WR Marquise Goodwin, CB Akhello Witherspoon, and T Joe Staley among others. They already had a quality stable of receivers before trading for Emmanuel Sanders last week, so the loss of Goodwin is minimized. The Niners continue to be one of the most balanced teams in the league, and show no signs of slowing down. However, it should be noted that the second half of the season for San Fran will see a significant uptick in quality of opponent, as they have games against the Seahawks, Packers, Ravens, and Saints ahead.

Houston Texans (5-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4)

Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars

This is going to be a fun game. The show that two these quarterbacks put on for their respective teams last week was simply sensational. There are some plays that Gardner Minshew pulls off that make you think, “Man, this guy could have something special.” For example, on a play in the first quarter against the Jets last week, Minshew somehow managed to escape a well-timed safety blitz and shed a sure-tackler in Jamal Adams. While on the run to his right, he floated a beautiful pass over the defense to Chris Conley for a 70-yard touchdown. It was the kind of play you expect from the Texans QB Deshaun Watson – a highly touted first-round pick – not from a 6th-rounder coming from a smaller program. Yet, week after week, Minshew is showing that he can play at this level, and play pretty damn well.

Watson, determined not to be outdone by anyone this season, is playing at an MVP level. If not for Patrick Mahomes, Watson would be the one lauded as the next “great thing” at quarterback. But forget that – right now, Deshaun Watson is doing things at the quarterback position that not even Mahomes has shown to be capable of. Mahomes may be able to throw a no-look pass, but on the game-winning touchdown against the Raiders last week, Watson essentially threw a touchdown while half-blind. While breaking a tackle Watson was freakishly kicked in the eye. Mid-play, Watson adjusted his helmet, stayed on the run, and eventually flicked a pass to his tight-end Darren Fells for a 9-yard touchdown. It was breathtaking.

As incredible as Watson has been playing, he can’t do it all himself. The Texans are breaking down with injuries, and just lost the heart and soul of their defense, J.J. Watt, reportedly for the rest of the season. The Jags are at home, and are riding the wave of “Minshew-Mania” to some hard-fought victories.

Chicago Bears (3-4) @ Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)

Winner: Philadelphia Eagles

Things have not been looking good in Chicago lately. The media is clamoring-about, desperately trying to find an explanation for the inconsistent football this club has been playing for three weeks. It culminated with a loss last week to a Chargers team that was on the ropes and nearly in shambles. The Bears had a chance to win the game as time ran out, but Eddy Pineiro’s 41-yard field goal attempt sailed wide. Much of the blame has fallen on Mitch Trubisky as the QB’s numbers have visibly dropped from last season, as well as for missing some makeable throws of late. It’s hard to go against that line of thinking when the defense is allowing the third-fewest points (17.4) and the seventh-fewest yards per game (316.6).

The Eagles saved their season last week with a huge win over the Bills, which turned out to be a great matchup for Philly. Largely due to injuries, the defense has been struggling against the pass, and the Bills are not exactly known for their passing game with Josh Allen at the helm. The defensive line, which has been underperforming this year, had a dominant game as they sacked Allen four times, and while also forcing three fumbles. The Eagles will supposedly see the return of WR Desean Jackson this week, his first action since an injury back in Week 2. This is a game-changer for the offense, as Jackson has the ability to stretch defenses like few players in the history of football.

Minnesota Vikings (6-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)

Winner: Minnesota Vikings

There’s been talk of Mahomes’ return in this matchup, but it seems more likely that the team will give his knee another week to heal up for a grueling second half of the season. Matt Moore has performed admirably in his absence, as the Chiefs almost pulled out a victory against the 7-1 Packers last week. While it was nice that the offense was able to produce given the circumstances, it’s the defense that continues to struggle immensely, particularly against the run. The Chiefs allow 145 rushing yards per game (30th). It’s been the Achilles’ heel of this team going back to last season, and could be what ultimately prevents a deep advance into the postseason.

Another week, another weak defense for Kirk Cousins to light up. In all seriousness, Cousins has been playing well, but this matchup won’t dispell the notion that he underperforms against top teams. What makes this Vikings team potentially very special is the run game on both sides of the ball. They’re averaging 160 rushing yards per game on offense (3rd), while allowing just 89 yards on the ground on defense (7th). Further, they’re surrendering just 16.5 points per game (3rd). With those kinds of numbers, the sky is the limit for this team if Cousins decides to turn the corner from good-to-great. With the Chiefs’ deficiency against the run, Dalvin Cook should have a field day against this defense.

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-4)

Winner: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts offense features one of the best offensive-lines in football, as well as one of the more efficient passing games. While this may look like a clear win for the Colts, the absence of T.Y. Hilton is significant as, without the star receiver to stretch the defense, the offense becomes much less of a dynamic, explosive unit. A heavy dose of RB Marlon Mack would make sense in this one, as the Colts will need to be mindful of the Steelers’ sixth-ranked pass rush.

The Steelers were gifted a 45-yard touchdown by the Miami defense just before the half in their 27-14 victory – a play that changed the momentum of the game. This Colts defense won’t be handing out any freebies; the Steelers are going to have to fight for every inch, and while Mason Rudolph has been solid, it’s just a tough matchup to expect him to win.

Washington Redskins (1-7) @ Buffalo Bills (5-2)

Winner: Buffalo Bills

The Redskins’ logic on starting rookie QB Dwayne Haskins in this game is a bit puzzling. Their plan the whole season has been to let him sit and develop before throwing him out there behind a bad offensive line, that continues to play without LT Trent Williams. Now, for some odd reason, Bill Callahan thinks it’s a good idea to have Haskins’ first professional start come against a ferocious Bills defense – one that provides little room for any offense to operate. Assuming Callahan knew he was going to start Haskins at some point this season, wouldn’t a matchup against the Dolphins in Week 7 have been a better confidence-builder? It’s just an odd approach, which seems to be the norm at Redskins Park.

Josh Allen’s inefficiency and turnover proneness cost the Bills multiple scores, while also resulting in points against in their home loss to the Eagles last week. It’s a flaw that will keep this team from contending with the elite teams of the AFC – but their superb defense will keep them in the hunt, especially with matchups like this. The best the Redskins can hope for Haskins in this game, is to not feed this Bills D too many turnovers.

New York Jets (1-6) Miami Dolphins (0-7)

Winner: New York Jets

There were some claims that the all-out blitz call against the Steelers last week, with just seconds remaining in the first half, is proof of tanking by Miami. The Steelers ended up scoring an easy, long touchdown that conveniently got them back into the game. Whether that’s true or not, when it comes down to it, is there any chance the Dolphins actually try to win this game – thereby risking their chance at the top pick by tying themselves with the Jets at a single win? No chance. Plus, the Jets, as bad as they’ve looked, are just a better overall team with more going for them right now.

Tennessee Titans (3-5) Carolina Panthers (4-4)

Winner: Carolina Panthers

With the news that Cam Newton will miss at least a few more weeks, the Kyle Allen show continues, even if last week’s episode was a bit of a downer. The 49ers defense pierced Allen for not only his first career interception, but for two more as well. It got ugly as the Panthers fell behind 27-3, before ultimately surrendering 51 points to San Fran. After four straight weeks of sound football, the Panthers crumbled when facing a higher quality opponent, which is a bit concerning.

The Titans are not exactly in that category at 3-5, and will need their defense to have a big game if they’re going to win this contest. The Panthers’ Christian McCaffrey still put up 155 total yards and a touchdown in his teams stinker performance, so he should be the top focus of the Titans defense. In theory, that will open up enough room for Allen to go to work against a solid but beatable Titans secondary. While Ryan Tannehill has been a pleasant surprise, it’s tough to see him leading this Titan team on a playoff push.

Detroit Lions (3-3-1) @ Oakland Raiders (3-4)

Winner: Detroit Lions

The Lions are technically in the hunt thanks to the tie on their record, but this is a game that could decide their fate this season. A loss here would mean they’d need to win a minimum of six-out-of-eight games to have a realistic shot at a Wild Card spot, more likely seven. A win, and with some luck, going 5-3 or 6-2 to end the season isn’t unfathomable, but it’s all they’ve got right now in Detroit. A desperate Lions team with Matthew Stafford leading the way generally finds a way to pull out a last-minute victory in these situations. Neither of these teams really breeds confidence in terms of making a pick, but Stafford gets the slight edge over Derek Carr in clutch-time.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (6-2)

Winner: Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks continue to roll, as they’re the favorite compete for one of the Wild Card spots in the NFC. They’ll need to keep winning games like this in order to keep pace with the candidates, such as the Vikings and Rams. The Hawks need their pass-rush to step its game up if they’re going be considered a real threat come the playoffs. This is a great opportunity for the defense to rack up some sacks and turnovers – two things Jameis Winston and Buccs offense have been providing plenty of this season.

Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers! They’ve been the bane of Jameis Winston’s existence in the NFL, and last Sunday was no different. The quarterback threw two interceptions and lost two-of-three fumbles! Yet, because of the occasional elite play he can make, life continues as the starter. The worst part about it is, if Winston could eliminate just half of his turnovers – hell, Buccs fans would take a third – he could be a viable winning quarterback. His connection with WR Mike Evans, who finished with a dominant line of 11-198-2 in the loss, is as dangerous as any in the league when it’s clicking. The Hawks secondary will present some big-play opportunities for the two to hook up.

Cleveland Browns (2-5) @ Denver Broncos (2-6)

Winner: Cleveland Browns

It was a week that Baker Mayfield would probably love to forget, as his testy exchange with a reporter made the rounds of every sports show on TV. After exclaiming the reported had asked the “dumbest question” he had ever heard, Mayfield walked off and ended the session with an annoyed expression on his face. Some think Mayfield was justified in his response, others believe it showed an emotional immaturity that is revealing of his underlying character. He doubled down on social media afterward, saying in so many words, what you see is what you get. Well, for now, the Browns got a QB that has thrown an interception in every game this season. This is a must-win game for Cleveland before the stuff really starts to hit the fan inside, and out of the locker room.

The Broncos lost Joe Flacco for the season last week due to a herniated disk in his neck. Denver will turn to backup Brandon Allen, a sixth-round pick by the L.A. Rams in 2016. Considering the Broncos just traded away their most reliable target, Emmanuel Sanders, the offense will likely struggle to get going against a Browns defense that has underachieved this season. The Broncos will likely rely on RB Phillip Lindsay to carry the load, and perhaps open up some passing lanes for the young QB Allen by establishing the ground game.

New England Patriots (8-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-2)

Winner: New England Patriots

This is the premier matchup of the week, not only between two AFC heavyweights, but two quarterbacks and offenses with very different yet effective styles. We know all about that “scrub” Tom Brady and his shenanigans. But how about Lamar Jackson? With Patrick Mahomes on the mend, is he the last defense against Brady and the Patriots reigning as AFC Champions for the 10th time under Brady? This game will go a long way in revealing that answer. There’s always the chance, no matter well how a team has played, that the Pats can slap you around and embarrass you in front of your home crowd. That seems fairly unlikely here, as Harbaugh is one of the few coaches to have clipped Belichick’s Patriots in a playoff game.

More likely is that this will be a brutally close, hard-fought game that the Pats pull out in the end with a clutch play or two, as they do. The thing is, if there is one mind in football that could devise a scheme to stop the rushing phenomenon that is Jackson and the Ravens offense, it is Belichick. Either way, it’ll be a hell of a matchup to watch between these coaches and quarterbacks.

Dallas Cowboys (4-3) @ New York Giants (2-5)

Winner: Dallas Cowboys

While the Cowboys had a rough few weeks after starting 3-0, they settled things down with a massive win over their division-contending-rival Philadelphia Eagles. It put Dallas back in the driver’s seat to decide their own fate this season. This matchup is a great chance to pad their lead in the NFC East. Dak Prescott silenced his critics for a week, but is going to need to show some consistency this season as the QB is under a veritable microscope. Asking for the highest-ever salary for a quarterback (reportedly) tends to have that effect.

The Giants got their star back in Saquon Barkley last week. So far, having their two future leaders, Barkley and QB Daniel Jones together, hasn’t translated to success. In facing some tougher defenses than in his first two career starts, Jones has shown to be exactly what most of the media thought him to be – a raw quarterback with some intriguing skills, that is going to take time and resources to develop into a winner. Jones has a chance to prove that theory wrong here by beating a solid Cowboys team in a primetime game, but don’t bet on it.

Note: This page is updated throughout the week to account for the latest injury updates and news around the league.