NFL Pick’ems: 2019 Wild Card Edition – Saturday

Regular Season Picks Record: 158-98

With 256 regular-season games played in 17 weeks, and 12 teams remaining, the 2019 NFL post-season has arrived! We’ve seen some more exciting finishes to other seasons, no-doubt. However, the equity of power has perhaps never been more balanced than it is in these stacked playoffs we are about to witness.

Let the games begin!

Buffalo Bills (10-6) @ Houston Texans (10-6)

The Breakdown: The Bills will travel to Houston to play the Texans at NRG Stadium in the first game of the Wild Card Playoffs. It would be hard for these two teams to be much more different from each other than they currently are. Let’s breakdown how these AFC contenders approach winning a football game.

The Texans run a vertical-passing offense using deep crossing routes, deliberately designed to maximize the speed and athleticism of one of the top receiving corps in football. Quarterback Deshaun Watson is a dynamic shot-caller with a rare combination of arm talent and overall mobility that is reminiscent of a veteran Randall Cunningham. His top target DeAndre Hopkins provides one of the widest catch-ranges of any receiver in football, as well as the all-important ability to win the one-on-one, “jump-balls”. Hopkins is often sent on elongated “7” routes across the defense, finding the open holes in zone-coverages, or simply beating his man with a finely tuned ability to get in-and-out of cuts. RB Carlos Hyde has given Houston a reliable workhorse for Watson to lean on when he gets an unfavorable look, giving the Texans just enough production to be considered one of the most balanced attacks in the league.

The Bills, on the other hand, deploy a power-style, run-heavy offense behind a thumping O-line. It can be compared to what the Baltimore Ravens run with Lamar Jackson, except the Bills’ quarterback is a 6’6, 240-pound behemoth (that’s just two inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter than Lebron James), the likes of which we haven’t seen since Cam Newton entered the league in 2011. Josh Allen is not only unique for his running ability (510 yards, nine touchdowns – second only to Jackson this season), there has been a marked improvement in the second-year QBs passing ability this season. His completion percentage went up six points from 52.8 to 58.8, while nearly doubling his TD:INT ratio from last season as well. Allen has made throws this season that would be considered elite if they were coming off the arm of a Drew Brees or Tom Brady. However, he has largely flown under the radar, with the Bills defense getting much of the credit for the team’s success, and deservedly so.

The Bills have been a top-five defense all season long, carrying over from a stellar 2018 campaign. They may not have the superstar, household names people are used to hearing like Lorenzo Alexander, but the front seven is as stout as any front in the league. Speaking of defensive fronts, the Texans will be getting back the heart and soul of theirs in DE J.J. Watt, returning from a torn-pectoral that took him half of the season to recover. This is a huge morale booster for Houston – how effective he will be on field is another question.

The Deciding Matchup: WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. CB Tre’Davious White

This is a delectable matchup between two 2019 All-Pro, elite competitors that could tip the scales for either team. The Bill’s Tre’Davious White has established himself one of the best man-to-man cover corners in the league. While not the biggest player, White makes up for his stature with elite quickness and hip-swiveling that allows him to stick to receiver routes like Tre’Davious White on rice. Without WR Will Fuller to take the pressure off of Hopkins, White will have plenty of help as well.

Final Say: It’s hard to find a more likable quarterback, talent and personality-wise, than Deshaun Watson. His temperament, leadership, and knowledge of the game combined with his playmaking ability make him one of the most entertaining players to watch in football. Unfortunately for Watson, football is the ultimate team sport, and the Bills have a slight edge in terms of bringing a balanced approach to winning. Allen, by the way, is truly intriguing quarterback himself, and will make his name known before the end of the contest. The Bills have the advantage defensively, and have the tools and wherewithal to frustrate a hampered Texans offense.

Winner: Buffalo Bills

Tennessee Titans (9-7) @ New England Patriots (12-4)

The Breakdown: There are many reasons, rumors – hopes even, that this could be the end of the Patriots’ reign as we know it. After 10 Super Bowl appearances, six victories, and 18 years of playoffs, things are looking a bit different this time around. The Patriots offense has been at its least-effective form that we’ve seen, perhaps ever, under the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. Ryan Tannehill has more wins (4) against Brady more than any quarterback in NFL history besides Peyton Manning (6). Titans Head Coach Mike Vrabel is a former long-time Patriot, and has plenty of insight into how Belichick and Brady operate. These are all reasons to like the Titans in this game. However, this is arguably the “GOAT” Coach-QB combo we’re talking about, and this is not the first occasion the masses have called for their demise, only to smacked backed into a recurring reality.

No one is better at minimizing mistakes than Belichick. No one is better at motivating and leading a team than Brady. This a Patriot team with the heart of a champion, as we’ve seen – but do they have the offensive tools of a champion? With the loss of TE Rob Gronkowski to retirement prior to the season, the Patriots offense has struggled with consistency all season. In particular, the receivers have not been able to gain adequate separation for Brady to risk throwing it their way, leading more balls thrown away this season than in any previous year in memory. Julian Edelman seemed to regain his form near the end of the season, but is ideally a slot receiver, something he’s played less and less of due to the lack of production outside.

The Deciding Matchup: RB Derek Henry vs. LB Dont’a Hightower

This is a matchup between two of the most physical players you will find in football. Henry’s exploits are well known at this point – his 99-yard, triple-stiff arm touchdown against Jacksonville a season ago is among the greatest, and most replayed runs in the 100-year history of the NFL. He followed that up by winning the NFL rushing title with a 200+ yard game to finish the season

Final Say:

Winner: New England Patriots