NFL Pick’ems: 2019 Conference Championships Edition

While some of the scores may not say it, it was an incredible Divisional Round of playoff football, one that has led us, shockingly in many ways, to this weekend’s Conference Championship matchups. While the Super Bowl gets the majority of the focus when it comes to retelling the story of a champion, people often forget (or overlook) the importance of the Semi-Finals – and the fact that there are two championships up for grabs this weekend. Perhaps they may not be as satisfying, or monumental as a Super Bowl victory, but winning a Conference Championship is something so very special, nonetheless, on its own. It’s a victory that signifies that you’ve truly made it. Whether or not you win the next one, the simple fact that you get to play in a Super Bowl is a dream realized for every player, coach, and fan of the game since they could hold a football.

Let’s find out which teams will be living the dream in Miami come February 2nd!

Tennesee Titans (11-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

What a matchup we have here – one that no one would have, or in all likelihood, will be able to predict with how these playoffs have gone. Stylistically, these two teams could not be more different from each other in their offensive approaches. The Titans run an old-school, smash-mouth offense. It is in many ways reminiscent of the Redskins under Joe Gibbs in the early years, plowing John Riggins the Hogs to the left, then to the right, then back to the left again. The Chiefs, on the other hand, run an offense that is as fresh and new-age as it gets. In reality, it is nothing like we’ve ever seen, but for comparison’s sake, the high-flying, innovative passing offense of Don Coryell and the Chargers come to mind.

Using the aforementioned smash-mouth style, the Tennessee Titans did what many, including yours truly, thought to be unthinkable. Not only did the unsung franchise defeat the higher-kept Baltimore Ravens handily, at home, 28-12… They made this season’s consensus MVP look damn near average. Defensively, the Titans’ swarming effort resulted in a brilliantly executed gameplan from head coach Mike Vrabel. Lamar Jackson, one of the most dynamic quarterbacks to emerge in recent history, had nowhere to go. On virtually every designed run and scramble play (until the game was out of reach), Jackson had multiple Titans in his pockets.

It was truly an impressive feat to witness, one that took the contribution of every Titans defender to accomplish, and could be dissected for days. However, it would be disrespectful to go a single sentence further without mentioning the accomplishments of RB Derrick Henry this past Saturday, and over the past three weeks. Henry has rushed for over 180 yards three games in a row – a record – which includes a 200-yard game to end the regular season, and back-to-back 180-yard postseason game – another record. Add it all up, and in three games, Henry has rushed for 588 yards and four touchdowns. Oh, and passing touchdown to boot.

Coming out of college in 2016, Henry was high on the lists of the next top running backs entering the league. However, he was overshadowed by teammate and Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, and was not drafted until the second round by Tennessee. Still, expectations were high, and for the first few years of his career, they were unmet by Henry according to league standards and many, many unsatisfied fantasy football players. First, there was the timeshare with former Titans RB Demarco Murray, who ate up nearly 600 touches in two seasons. Henry sat patiently, without fuss, for his time to come. When it did come, there were periods of serious inconsistency. At one point, it looked like Henry could even be a bust.

Even as recently as this season, Henry had just a single 100-yard game through the first nine weeks. However, in what seems to be becoming a trademark of his, Henry has finished off the past two seasons on dominant stretches that even his biggest admirers could not have imagined. Henry rushed for over 100 yards in five of the last six games to end the regular season, leading the Titans to a 5-1 record and a playoff birth. The Titans are 13-0, per NFL.com, when Henry rushes for over 100 yards during his career.

As wonderful as that sounds for Titans fans, stats can sometimes be as reliable as a desert mirage. Suffice it to say, it would not be a shock to see the phenomenal running back break the 100-yard mark in this contest. It would also not be a shock to find that the Titans defense cannot contain an all-time great offense, such as KC’s, enough to ultimately win the game. Henry can rush for 100, even 200 yards – the Titans are not a team that is accustomed to scoring upwards of 40 points, just by virtue of their offensive style. With Henry racking up 20-30 carries per game, the clock runs almost continuously and the game is essentially shortened. The Titans are just fine with that – they’re content to win games 20-17, or somewhere in that ballpark. Unfortunately, that will not fly against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Barring another historically great performance from Vrabel’s defense, the Titans are in for the roughest ride of their football lives. These teams played in a wild Week 10 contest which ended on a blocked field goal by Tennessee, sealing a 35-32 upset over Kansas City. It was Mahomes’ first game since suffering a dislocated knee back in Week 7. Mahomes looked rusty at times, missing throws that are routine for him. The injury looked to be affecting his accuracy – surely his stats must have looked awf… I’m sorry, he what? He threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns? I see… *sits down*

It’s a scary thought to ponder what a fully recovered and rested Mahomes could do to these Titans… Like say, throw four touchdowns in a single quarter? Which is exactly what Mahomes did last week, tying Doug Williams for the most postseason passing touchdowns in a single quarter. The Chiefs erased a 24-point lead quicker than most of us could put a sandwich together in the kitchen. They would go on to put up 51 points in what will be remembered as one of the most incredible offensive performances in the history of Pro football. An even scarier thought: the Chiefs have a significantly improved defensive scheme over last year, realistically the only thing that prevented them from winning it all.

The Deciding Matchup: TE Travis Kelce Vs S Kevin Byard

The Chiefs have so many dangerous weapons – Tyreek Hill, Damien Williams, Mecole Hardman – it’s tough to single one of them out. There are several interesting matchups in this game; the most intriguing is a matchup of between two of the best at their respective positions. There’s no telling exactly how Vrabel will decide to cover Kelce, but a good guess is putting All-Pro safety Kevin Byard on him for a majority of snaps. Byard is known for his exceptional ball skills and ability to cover multiple positions.

If Byard can limit Kelce’s space and allow the Titans defense to focus on stopping Tyreek Hill and the rest of the Chiefs receivers, the Titans may, MAY have a chance at the end of this game. Byard may be one of the few safeties with the talent, football I.Q., and coaching to contain Kelce.

Final Say: There is something to be said about being overconfident against a seemingly “lesser” opponent. The Titans have been overlooked all year, including against the Patriots, and certainly against the Ravens. The Chiefs are a sizeable favorite in this game, and rightfully so – on paper. WR Tyreek Hill came out and essentially said he doesn’t think anyone, on any defense can guard him, or any of his teammates, period. A bold statement to say the least, and something you would never hear from a Bill-Belichick-coached Patriots player. Andy Reid is a little different. He allows his players to express themselves freely, to a certain extent. Though, I’m sure he would prefer his players not unnecessarily provide their opponents with “bulletin board” material prior to the biggest game of their collective careers.

It is extremely tempting to pick the Titans for an “upset” victory here. They have the prototypical team to not only beat the Chiefs, but to go all the way. Their stellar run game keeps the opposition’s stars offensive players off the field, and you can’t score if you can’t get on the field – traditionally. The Chiefs are anything but traditional, and have a quick-scoring ability the likes of which we’ve never seen. They don’t need many possessions to put up points, as witnessed by their eight-straight possessions with a touchdown last week against Houston. It has come to the point where, honestly, it’s a surprise if they don’t score on any given possession. They are that good – no, they are that great! Great enough to outscore the white-hot Titans in this game, and great enough to win a Super Bowl title this year.

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs

Green Bay Packers (14-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

Like the Chiefs and Titans, these teams met each other in the regular season – the only difference being the game was not close. The Niners annihilated the Packers 37-8 in what would be Green Bay’s worst loss of the season by far. Aaron Rodgers was pressured all game long, leading to complete shut down of the Packers offense. The Packers’ stars, WR Davante Adams and RB Aaron Jones, were held to just 45 yards receiving and 38 yards rushing, respectively. The game was nationally televised, and the Packers were physically dominated for three straight hours. It was a wakeup call for Green Bay, one that Rodgers publicly acknowledged, and vowed the team would fix come playoffs. Well, here is their chance.

There is a long-standing connection, or history, if you will, not only between these two franchises (Steve Mariucci, Mike Holmgren) but between head coaches Kyle Shanahan and Matt LaFleur. In many ways, LaFleur is an apprentice of Shanahan’s, having worked under the then-offensive coordinator on three different teams (Texans, Redskins, Falcons). How much impact their relationship will have on this game, it’s hard to say. It should be noted, though, that it’s not an uncommon phenomenon for an apprentice to actually have an advantage over their former teacher in competition, having learned all their tricks also while adding their own. LaFleur undoubtedly knows some of Shanahan’s thought-processes, situational tendencies, favorite play calls, etc. When it’s all said and done, their relationship could, indeed, play a factor in the critical moments of this game.

There is a long-standing connection, or history if you will, between Shanahan and LaFleur. In many ways LaFleur is an apprentice of Shanahan’s, having worked under the then-offensive coordinator on three different teams (Texans, Redskins, Falcons). How much impact their relationship will have on this game, it’s hard to say. However, it should be said that it’s not an uncommon phenomenon for an apprentice to actually have an advantage over their teacher, having learned all their tricks while adding a few of their own. LaFleur undoubtedly knows some of Shanahan’s thought-processes, situational tendencies, favorite play calls, etc. When it’s all said and done, their relationship could play a big role in the critical moments of this game.

However, to say that LaFleur’s familiarity with Shanahan’s scheme could end up being the difference in this game, would be to assume that Shanahan has a certain level of predictability as a play-caller, which is anything but the case. Aside from Andy Reid or Josh McDaniels, there is perhaps no one more creative, or more adept at calling plays than Shanahan. The 40-year old is highly in tune with where the modern game was, and where it is headed. We know he’s the son of a two-time Super Bowl-winning head coach, and that he himself called the plays for an NFC Champion Atlanta Falcons team just three years ago. He called a nearly perfect first half of Super Bowl LI against the Patriots. Most of us, by now, know the rest of the story.

It’s a black mark on Shanahan’s legacy. He knows it. We know it. Everyone knows it. With that said, he has a tremendous opportunity to put some white-out over that mark by leading the 49ers franchise to their seventh Super Bowl appearance, and if all goes well, their sixth title in franchise history. It starts with out-coaching his apprentice, and putting together a gameplan that allows Jimmy “G” to outscore a future Hall-of-Famer. If Shanahan can accomplish all of that, his legacy could be on its way to the same destination. But of course, as they say: the coaches coach and the players play – so who’s going to decide the game on the field?

The Deciding Matchup: WR Davante Adams Vs CB Richard Sherman

When it comes to consistently playing at a high level, perhaps no two players have done it better at their respective positions, over the past three seasons, than Sherman and Adams. Which is what makes this matchup so compelling – which model of consistency will prove to be more consistent against a consistently good opposition? Sherman’s exploits are well known. He was the top corner in the Seahawks “Legion of Boom” defense, and has been one of the few true “shutdown” corners of his era. Adams, meanwhile, has caught 28 touchdowns over the past three seasons, second only to DeAndre Hopkins.

Sherman and Adams have similar body types – long, lanky, with a strong upper body physique. That’s bad news for Adams, as he has no real physical advantages over Sherman. Adams will have to rely on his route-running ability and savviness to fake out the All-Pro – easier said than done. It’s not a great matchup for Adams, but if he can find a way to make it work, it could tilt the game in his team’s favor.

Final Say: This game will be very different from the regular-season matchup. Expect to see heavy doses of the run game from both teams early, unless LaFleur and Rodgers decide to switch it up for unpredictability’s sake, and toss the football around. It’s more likely, though, that the Packers will find themselves unable to block the 49ers dominant four-man pass rush – a rare, yet definitive marker of Super Bowl worthy defense. With Sherman matching up on Rodgers’ most reliable target, the onus will fall to a group of inexperienced receivers to pull their weight against the league’s top remaining defense.

While it’s never really a bad bet to go with Aaron Rodgers, there are a number of small factors that give the 49ers the edge in this game over the Packers. The 49ers are playing at home; the Packers don’t play nearly as well on the road as they do at Lambeau. The 49ers have multiple options to go with at RB; the Packers are doomed if Aaron Jones can’t get going. The 49ers have four legitimately threatening pass rushers on defense led by Nick Bosa; the Packers have two. The 49ers head coach has been to and won an NFC Championship as an offensive coordinator; the Packers have a rookie head coach with zero playoff experience in a coordinator/head coaching fashion. All of these little factors add up in a game of inches, and Niners have a few more to spare than the Pack.

Winner: Green Bay Packers