NFL Pick’ems: Week 5

Last Week Picks: 7-8

Overall Picks Records: 37-26

Yikes! Worst week for picks so far, as other than Kansas City and New England, a fair number of the consensus contenders slipped up this week, including the Cowboys, Rams, and Packers.

Time to get back on track!

Los Angeles Rams (3-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

Winner: Los Angeles Rams

The Rams were embarrassed at home last week by Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers, losing in a 55-40 shootout. It seemed like every time the Rams needed a play from either side of the ball, something went wrong. The defense was shredded for 464 yards and six touchdowns, while the offense turned the ball over four times. Yet, the Rams had a chance in the fourth quarter to drive the field and tie the game. Their hopes ended on a fumble by Jared Goff, returned by former Ram Ndamukong Suh for a touchdown. Ouch. By the end, the Rams had a ridiculous pass-run ratio of 68:11, surely something Sean McVay was regretting afterward.

While it was a horrible performance, the Rams typically have bounced back and performed well after a loss under McVay. This is a huge divisional showdown against rival Seahawks, who are coming off a fairly laid-back victory against the Cardinals. The main concern for Seattle in this game is containing All-Universe DT Aaron Donald, who has absolutely terrorized Russell Wilson in his career. While Wilson has been superb this season, his line has been spotty at times this season. Expect Donald to wreak havoc in this game.

New York Jets (0-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)

Winner: Philadelphia Eagles

Both of these clubs are banged up heading into this matchup. Sam Darnold continues to miss time (illness) but could return next week. Backup Luke Falk has been fairly pedestrian filling in for Darnold so far, with the Jets mostly dinking and dunking in between trying to bludgeon teams with Le’Veon Bell. This will be a tough game on the road for the Jets, with 0-4 staring them in the face.

The Eagles are still mangled by injuries, yet have found ways to pull out a couple of victories so far. Desean Jackson, Ronald Darby, Timmy Jernigan, and several others will miss this game. No matter, though, when you have a gap in quarterback play this wide, the Eagles should cruise to a victory at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) @ Carolina Panthers (2-2)

Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars

Two of the more surprising stories this season will go head-to-head in this matchup for supremacy of the backup QBs! Gardner Minshew and Kyle Allen have, in different ways, led their teams to back-to-back victories in as many games. Minshew with his playmaking ability and short-game accuracy, and Allen with an impressive array of throws. Despite the continued absence of premiere corner Jalen Ramsey, the Jags defense has stepped up and made plays in key situations. Leonard Fournette rushed for a monster total of 225 yards against Denver, a career-high for him. The Panthers defense is allowing 130 rushing yards per game (23rd), and will have their hands full against Fournette and the Stache this week.

Kyle Allen has certainly been a pleasant surprise for Carolina. The QB is getting plenty of attention for his steady play. Make no mistake, though, this offense runs through the absolute stud RB, Christian “White Panther” McCaffrey, who is in the conversation for most complete back in the NFL. Much like the Jets Le’Veon Bell, McCaffery can do it all, and is arguably faster than Bell has ever been while showing tremendous power for a smaller back. Defenses have to account for him on every play, which has opened up some passing lanes for Allen, who’s taking full advantage.

Minnesota Vikings (2-2) @ New York Giants (2-2)

Winner: Minnesota Vikings

Things have reached a boiling point with Kirk Cousins in Minnesota, after a week of turmoil fueled by the Vikings receivers. Both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs made comments that were indirectly directed towards Cousins and the inefficiency of the passing game. Cousins even felt the need to publicly apologize to Thielen for missing the Pro Bowl receiver on several deep balls. The Giants secondary has been below-average against weak passing opponents.

In theory, both Diggs and Thielen should be able to shred this defense, it just depends whether Cousins can seize the opportunities when they come. While Dalvin Cook found little room to run against the Bears, he continues to be on another level when it comes to his pace on the field. One on one, there might be no one better right now. Daniel Jones has impressed in his two starts, however, he has not faced a defense with the ability to put pressure on the QB like the Vikings. This could be a wake-up call and a welcome to the NFL moment for “Danny Dimes”

Atlanta Falcons (1-3) @ Houston Texans (2-2)

Winner: Houston Texans

While the Texans have sputtered a bit, the Falcons have been in a downward spiral that they may be unable to reverse. Atlanta’s inefficiency in the red zone has killed this team’s chances so far. Outside of Matt Ryan’s connection with Julio Jones, the offense hasn’t found another go-to playmaker to open up some other options. They haven’t gotten much help from the run game either, as Devonta Freeman finished with under 25 yards rushing for the third time in four games. Houston’s defense has been middling, so if they can get some kind run game going they may be able to open up this Texans secondary.

The Texans struggled to get a rhythm going last week against the Panthers #1 ranked passing defense. Houston’s receivers were blanketed for much of the game and found little room to run after the catch. The Falcons have been below average against the pass and are missing some key cogs, leading to the thought that Deshaun Watson should be able to find his deadly duo of receivers for plenty of yardage. This could be a high-scoring affair that comes down the last drive.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) @ New Orleans Saints (3-1)

Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In back-to-back weeks the Saints pulled off brilliant victories against two contenders in the NFC. The beauty of those victories is how different they were – against the Seahawks, the offense and special teams did the work, while the defense took over and dominated the high-powered Cowboys a week later. Teddy Bridgewater has been safe and efficient so far, making the correct reads and winning the field position battle for his defense, which has been stout.

Likewise for Tampa Bay, they stunned the Rams with a 55-point performance, with major contributions from both sides of the ball. Jameis Winston seems to have taken a liking to this offensive scheme composed by head coach Bruce Arians. Winston is playing some of his best ball of late, and the Buccs have a ton of momentum coming into this game. They can take the division lead with a win, and put themselves in a great position heading into another rival game against Carolina next week.

Buffalo Bills (3-1) @ Tennessee Titans (2-2)

Winner: Tennessee Titans

The Bills lost to their long-time bully, the New England Patriots in a game where their starting quarterback was knocked out by a brutal hit to the head. Josh Allen should be fine to return this week against the Titans, however, it’s likely the quarterback will not be functioning at full speed so to speak, as it can take a couple of weeks for the effects of a concussion to wear off. The Bills defense continues its elite form through four weeks, but in this case, the Titans are a unique offense that may be able to exploit some holes with a power running game.

The Titans got back on track this past week with a much-needed 24-10 victory over the Falcons. They’ve been feeding Derrick Henry, who finished with 100 yards on 27 carries. While the Bills have been excellent against the run, the circumstances of this game lend to their defense spending lots of time on the field against a bruising run game. With a groggy Josh Allen, the Titans get the slight edge.

Arizona Cardinals (0-3-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-4)

Winner: Arizona Cardinals

After a promising comeback-tie in Week 1 against the Lions, it’s been a downhill slide for Kyler Murray and the Cards offense. The rookie has spent a lot of time holding on to the ball, running around for his life. This could be his chance to take a breath and just play ball against a troubled Cincinnati defense. The Bengals are struggling on both sides of the ball and on top of A.J. Green’s absence, the lightning-fast receiver John Ross is expected to miss multiple games with a shoulder injury. Both of these teams look like they could go winless, but somebody has to win (or tie) this Sunday.

New England Patriots (4-0) @ Washington Redskins (0-4)

Winner: New England Patriots

New England took sole possession of the division lead after knocking off the previously undefeated Bills, moving to 4-0 for the fourth time under Belichick and Brady’s tutelage. The narrow 16-10 win wasn’t without controversy, as the Patriots knocked quarterback Josh Allen out of the game with a head hit that Bills coach Sean McDermott took exception to in the postgame press conference. The offense and Brady, in particular, looked out of sync, which is not entirely uncommon when the Pats go on the road against a divisional foe.

The Redskins are nearing an all-time low under Dan Snyder’s tenure in terms of.. well, everything. Record, morale, hope, dignity – you name it. On Saturday, a video surfaced of head coach Jay Gruden allegedly smoking a joint, and cavorting with a younger woman – for the record, Gruden is married. While it was looking clear like Gruden was in his last days as the head coach, this video is not a good look for his overall career prospects beyond his relationship with Redskins. When Snyder decides to fire Gruden and reboot the circus is anybody’s guess, but one thing is for sure – they will be 0-5 after this weekend.

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)

Winner: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens took a shocking divisional loss to the Cleveland Browns last week giving up 40 points at home – typically unheard of for a Baltimore defense. Lamar Jackson has cooled off a bit after throwing for seven touchdowns and zero interceptions in the first two games. Jackson did throw for three touchdowns against the Browns, but was also picked twice in the second half when the Ravens had a chance to get back within one score. That being said, the loss can’t be entirely put on Jackson, as Mark Ingram had a fumble that led to a Browns touchdown, and the defense gave up over 170 yards to Nick Chubb.

While games in this rivalry traditionally come down to the last drive, it will be a challenge to keep up with the Ravens offense. Not that Mason Rudolph has been all that bad, but the sting has been taken out of this offense without Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and now Big Ben. Despite giving up 40 points to the Browns, the Ravens’ defensive posture is one of the toughest to crack, and takes a good set of matchup advantages to get the best of – which the Steelers just don’t have at the moment. Defensively the Steelers haven’t done much well besides pressuring the quarterback – although newly acquired safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has been a playmaking machine for his new team.

Chicago Bears (3-1) @ Oakland Raiders (2-2)

Winner: Chicago Bears

The Bears lost Mitch Trubisky to a dislocated shoulder in last week’s game, yet still managed to thoroughly outplay the Vikings on both sides. Backup QB Chase Daniel was effective, as he has been on several occasions during his 10-year career coming in relief of a starter. The Bears defense is so good, their pass-rush so unrelenting on every play, that quarterbacks can barely hit their back foot on a 3-4 step drop before Khalil Mack and co. are in their face. For that reason, they can win this game against a Raiders O-line that has been up and down, and now has to face the wrath of a returning Mack. This is his chance for revenge against his old team and Jon Gruden, who traded him for a haul of draft picks two a season ago.

Denver Broncos (0-4) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)

Winner: Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have been a strange bunch so far with some inconsistency on both sides of the ball. In their victories, they’ve averaged over 30 points per game, compared to just 15 in their losses. It seems like each facet of the team has had both streaks of excellence, as well as some very poor performances. Conversely, the Broncos have just been straight poor for the most part. It took Von Miller and the defense four games to get a sack – A sack, as in one. Flacco has been decent but without the strength of the team showing up, this team has little chance of winning games.

Green Bay Packers (3-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-1)

Winner: Dallas Cowboys

This has the makings for the game of the week, as two NFC heavyweights clash in a rematch of the 2017 Divisional round thriller. That game ended on a Mason Crosby game-winning field goal, a 34-31 victory for Green Bay. While Aaron Rodgers may not be at the same laser-focused, in-the-zone level that we know him for, he’s still one of the best aerial leaders in football. Defensively the Packers showed their first cracks in what has been a wall of defense over the first three weeks, after surrendering 34 points to the Eagles.

The Cowboys are coming off a massively disappointing loss to the Saints in their home stadium. The offense was repeatedly stifled by a tough New Orleans defense that is similar in terms of talent to the Packers. However, the Cowboys have had massive success in the past running the football against Green Bay, as Zeke Elliot has consistently outclassed and overpowered this defense. Dak Prescott showed first signs of real struggle this season against the Saints. With a better run game this week, he should be able to bounce back at home.

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs

The Colts have impressed after being written off after the retirement of Andrew Luck. Playing behind a fantastic offensive line, more could not be asked of Jacoby Brissett right now, who is tied with Patrick Mahomes for the lead league lead in touchdowns (10). With their most dangerous weapon T.Y. Hilton being questionable to play, brilliant as they’ve been, it may be asking too much to keep up with the video-game-like offense of the Chiefs. On top of Hilton’s absence, the Colts will be without their two best tacklers, LB Darius Leonard and S Malik Hooker. Just about the worst combination of injuries the Colts could have in this matchup.

Patrick Mahomes was held without a touchdown in a game for just the second time of his career. There were some uncharacteristically missed throws from Mahomes, some fault of his own and some because of miscommunication with his receivers. Either way, it was a rare sight in his young career. In what is considered an off day for the phenom, he still managed to throw for 315 yards, and made a few plays with his legs which he usually doesn’t need to do – credit to the Detroit secondary. We’ll give Showtime a reprieve this time, and expect to see him lighting up the world again come Sunday Night.

Cleveland Browns (2-2) @ San Francisco (3-0)

Winner: Cleveland Browns

Cleveland’s best performance came against last week against Baltimore, as they put up 40 points on a talented defense, while forcing multiple turnovers on Lamar Jackson and Ravens the offense. This was the performance that everybody who’d hyped up the Browns had envisioned, a balanced team win with contributions from up and down the roster. The Browns put it all together but… Can they do it twice in a row? San Francisco is a worthy opponent at this stage in the season, and will be a good stick measuring stick to see where the Browns really stand.

The Niners have taken advantage of a favorable schedule so far, going unscathed after three weeks. This matchup will be their biggest test yet. While Jimmy Garroppolo has been managing the offense well, it’s been the running game and defense that have fueled this team to an undefeated start. The Browns are flying high after last week and will be looking to move Odell Beckham Jr. around the offense to find and exploit the holes away from Richard Sherman territory. The Niners can’t afford to let Beckham Jr. run wild, but have other guys to worry about stopping as well (Chubb, Landry).

Note: This page is updated throughout the week to account for the latest injury updates and news around the league.