NFL Pick’ems: Week 12

Last Week’s Picks: 12-2

Overall Picks Record: 99-65

Two of last week’s upset picks worked out, and two didn’t – everything else went as anticipated. But as per usual, just when you think you have the league figured out, surely a week of unexpected events is on the way.

Let’s expect the unexpected!

Indianapolis Colts (6-4) @ Houston Texans (6-4)

Winner: Houston Texans

Houston was soundly defeated in Baltimore last week, taking their worst beating of the season in a 41-7 shellacking. It looked like the Lamar Jackson challenge was something the defense was simply not prepared for – no shame in that right? Wrong. We know Houston can’t beat New England – Bill Belichick has Bill O’Brien’s number worse than a mongoose has a snake’s. Meaning the Texans would likely have to go through Baltimore during any successful postseason run. So, they’ll have to figure that out. For now, the AFC South division championship is up for grabs in this matchup against the Colts, whom the Texans faced in a hard-fought loss in Week 7.

The Colts have had to fight through a number of injuries of late, and things got worse last week. RB Marlon Mack is expected to miss a few weeks after fracturing his hand in the Colts’ 33-13 victory over the Jaguars. Mack is expected to miss a few weeks; unfortunate, considering he was on pace to set career-high numbers this season. However, with T.Y. Hilton possibly set to return from injury, the Colts could get a significant boost on offense if the dynamic WR can suit up. One thing’s for sure, there’s not much between these division rivals, and this matchup has “down to the wire” written all over it.

Miami Dolphins (2-8) @ Cleveland Browns (4-6)

Winner: Cleveland Browns

In the aftermath of the Myles Garrett “indefinite” suspension, the road ahead looks considerably darker than it should for a team on a two-game winning streak, with a favorable chance to win a third. The Browns also lost S Morgan Burnett to an Achilles injury, placing him IR earlier this week. If Baker Mayfield and the Browns can make a run similar to the second half of last season, they have a chance. However, the job has been made significantly more difficult going forward without their best defensive player. Garrett’s actions likely ended the Browns’ slim shot at the postseason, even if they do manage a win this week. Either way, it will be interesting to see which way the front office decides to go with Freddy Kitchens at the season’s end.

If Brian Flores can win with the current Dolphins roster… They may be on to something in Miami with this head coach. The Dolphins’ treasure trove of draft picks, discussed at length in an SV article earlier this season, could be used to build the AFC’s next heavyweight contender. Whether GM Chris Grier is the man to get the job done is anyone’s guess; he did well acquiring the picks, we’ll see what he does with them.

Detroit Lions (3-6-1) @ Washington Redskins (1-9)

Winner: Detroit Lions

It’s tempting to pick the Redskins in this game after the rookie Dwayne Haskins got “off the Schneid,” and scored his first two big-league touchdowns last week. Though the Redskins lost 33-17 to a sub-par Jets side, there were some positives for Washington. Haskins knows full-well it’s a process for rookie QB’s, and he’s been handling the growing pains as well as anyone could. Off the field his intelligence beams like a supernova. On the field, he’s begun to show flashes of the arm-talent that got him drafted 15th overall this past April. Further, Haskins showed some early leadership and passion on the sidelines in a video that went viral this week. After being pummeled on several consecutive drives, the young QB emphatically implored his O-line to communicate, asking what he could do to make their jobs easier.

WR Terry McLaurin continues to prove that he is an absolute diamond in the reasonably-dirty-third-round rough. Strangely ironic for a franchise that has busted on multiple high-round receivers over the past two decades (Josh Docston, Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, Rod Gardner). McLaurin compares himself to DeSean Jackson, and is living up to that standard with an average of 16.2 yards per reception. Health-willing, “Scary” Terry is a bonafide keeper and his connection with Haskins has the potential to be special. It’s been brewing since their time together at Ohio St., and could be the cornerstone of the Redskins offense for years to come. All this is to say that the Redskins are not yet ready to win games, but fans saw a faint spark in the darkness for the first time in months.

Impressively, the Lions put up a fight against the Cowboys without Matthew Stafford last week. Stafford won’t be back, but the Lions have gotten some key pieces back from injury in recent weeks including CB Darius Slay. There is still some minuscule sliver of hope somewhere for Detroit, as they’re mathematically still in the playoff picture. Jeff Driskel’s mobility will be key in avoiding the Redskins staunch, albeit underperforming pass-rush. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones should see plenty of work against the vulnerable Washington secondary, while second-year RB Bo Scarbrough will get his opportunity to shine.

Oakland Raiders (6-4) @ New York Jets (3-7)

Winner: Oakland Raiders

The Raiders class of rookies has been outstanding thus far, and much credit is owed to the Oakland GM, and NFL Draft Guru, Mike Mayock. The rookies have contributed at virtually every level on both sides of the ball. Most notably, Josh Jacobs leads all rookies with 923 rushing yards (4th-most). DE Maxx Crosby, a 4th-rounder who also has a pretty sick “Mad Max: Fury Road” tattoo on his arm, racked up four sacks in last week’s win over Cincinnati. 5th-round WR Hunter Renfrow has made some clutch catches for this offense, Last but not least, when healthy, S Jonathan Abram is a force to reckoned with. The Raiders are a legitimate sleeper team to do some damage come December.

Sam Darnold threw for a career-high four touchdowns in the Jets 33-17 win over Washington. Darnold seems to have settled down since throwing a combined seven picks in Weeks 7-8, although, it’s been against some of the league’s worst competition (WAS, NYG, MIA). The time has come to put these J-E-T-S to R-E-S-T.

New York Giants (2-8) @ Chicago Bears (4-6)

Winner: Chicago Bears

Over the past four games, Daniel Jones has 10 touchdowns to just two picks – pretty good, right? Sure, until you remember that over those same four games Jones also has a league-leading 10 fumbles, and the Giants didn’t win a single one. The O-line has been porous for large stretches, giving up 22 sacks over the four losses, so the blame certainly can’t all be laid at the rookie’s feet. It is, however, becoming a concerning flaw that will have to be remedied in offseason. For now, Jones has impressed with his overall passing ability. With the right mentorship and personnel around him, Jones has the potential to become a successful pro QB. Realistically, team success is still a couple of seasons away.

The controversy over Mitch Trubisky’s hip injury this week was something to behold. Without any kind of video evidence of the injury occurring, speculation roamed wild about a cover-up after it appeared Trubisky had been benched in the Bears 17-7 loss to the Rams. Legitimate or not, the struggles have certainly been real for Mitch this season. Unlike Jones, it hasn’t been a slew of turnovers doing him in, but an overall futility for Trubisky that has Bears fans seething. That being said, the Bears have a significant advantage on the defensive side that should carry them to a victory this week against an equally frustrated Giants team.

Carolina Panthers (5-5) @ New Orleans Saints (8-2)

Winner: New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees and the Saints bounced back after their shocking upset loss to Atlanta, with a 34-17 pounding of the Buccs on the road. Brees tossed three touchdowns, the defense had four picks, and all was back to normal in the Big Easy. At 8-2, New Orleans has kept pace with the rest of the top NFC contenders (SF, GB, SEA, MIN), and still a have good shot the get the first-seed. Nobody wants to go on the road against the Saints in the Super Dome, meaning these next several games are of exponential importance. The Panthers look to be bleeding out after losing three-of-four games, and ripe for the kill this week.

A few weeks ago, there was talk of Kyle Allen potentially replacing Cam Newton as the quarterback of the Panthers next season. That talked has slowed down considerably after Allen threw for a career-worst four interceptions last week. Over the past four games, Allen has thrown three touchdowns to nine picks. On the bright side, Christian McCaffrey continues his phenomenal campaign as he racked up 191 total yards, despite his offense scoring only three points. As dominant as the second-year RB has been, he can’t win the game by himself.

Seattle Seahawks (8-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)

Winner: Seattle Seahawks

The Hawks are coming off a bye week and a massive victory on the road against the previously undefeated 49ers. The win puts Seattle very much in range of stealing the division lead from San Fran as early as this week. With a win here and a Niners loss to Green Bay, Seattle would be in the driver’s seat for the NFC West title. Russell Wilson has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 23:2 and is considered a favorite to win League MVP. He should be in line for another excellent day against the vulnerable Eagles secondary. DE Jadaveon Clowney is questionable to play, something to keep an eye.

Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense have struggled with consistency, ranked 23rd in yards per game (338). The opportunities were there against the Patriots last week, but the Eagles let too many slip, as they’ve often done this season. In the 17-10 loss, WR Nelson Agholor could have tied the game in the waning minutes, but let a beautifully thrown ball from Wentz slip through his fingers. The best news for Philly is the return of WR Alshon Jeffrey, a difference-maker. The Eagles need a win to keep pace with Dallas in the NFC East – but against Wilson and the more consistent Hawks, the Eagles will likely have their backs up against the wall for a third straight season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-7) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-7)

Winner: Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are coming off back-to-back weeks of dominating their top division rivals, and look like a rejuvenated team playing for the sake of their head coach’s honor. First, it was a 26-9 road victory against the 8-2 Saints, then a 29-3 smashing of the Panthers last week. While it’s realistically too late for a playoff push, a three-game winning streak within the division is sweet, no matter the circumstances. The defense has been incredible of late, and turned in their best performance of the season with four picks and five sacks off of Kyle Allen.

Another day, another multi-turnover game for Buccs QB Jameis Winston. This time it was four interceptions at home against the Saints, bringing Winston’s total to a league-leading 18 on the season. While it’s easy to think, with how the Falcons defense has suddenly turned things around, that this will a similar situation for Jameis. However, his inconsistency is such that he can perform equally well to as poor as he did the previous week. Expect a close game, but ultimately a loss to the hotter Falcons.

Denver Broncos (3-7) @ Buffalo Bills (7-3)

Winner: Buffalo Bills

While the Broncos offense has been underwhelming, the defense has been stellar, ranked 4th in yards (310) and 8th in points (19.7) allowed per game. The offense came to a single play away from winning the game last week against the Vikings, but Brandon Allen’s pass went through the hands of rookie TE Noah Fant. The Broncos had a surprising 20-0 lead in the first half, then all facets of the team collapsed in the second, eventually losing 27-23. This is a better matchup for Denver, as Josh Allen and the Bills offense present a simpler scheme.

The Bills defense has been similarly dominant, ranked 3rd in yards (301) and points (17) allowed per game. Meanwhile, Allen has taken much better care of the ball, going a career-best five straight games without throwing an interception. If (and it’s a big “if”) Allen can continue that kind of positive decision making, the Bills have a significantly more realistic shot of contending with the big boys. Against the suffocating Broncos secondary, Allen’s superb scrambling ability will be a major factor in this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-10)

Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

After putting the incident between Mason Rudolph and Myles Garrett behind them, the Steelers are ready to return their focus on staying in the playoff hunt. They’ll get a bit of a reprieve this week as the Bengals are winless through 10 games. However, Rudolph is going to have to show a lot more poise than he did in the 21-7 loss to the Browns last Thursday. Aside from getting bashed in the head with a helmet, it was a career-worst day in which Rudolph threw four interceptions. The loss of center Maurkice Pouncey to a two-game suspension could prove to be fatal for the Steelers’ chances come January.

Ryan Finley hasn’t faired much better than andy Dalton at QB for Cincy, On the dimly-lit side, Joe Mixon and Auden Tate look to be solid building blocks for the future of the Bengals offense. At some point, though, rookie head coach Zac Taylor needs to prove he can rally and lead a group of professional athletes to victory.

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6) @ Tennessee Titans (5-5)

Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Titans were able to exploit the Chiefs’ soft run defense, as Derrick Henry racked up 188 yards and two touchdowns. Henry had a similarly monster game the last time the Jaguars came to Tennessee in 2018, including an unforgettable 99-yard, full-on Beast Mode touchdown. It’s a play the Jacksonville defense certainly kept close in mind, as they shut down Henry and the Titans 20-7 back in Week 3 – that was with Marcus Mariota at QB. With Ryan Tannhill running the show, the passing game has improved when it comes to intermediate-to-deep throws down the field. Tannehill bounced back from the 30-20 loss to the Panthers, with a huge upset win over Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs. Tannehill has posted three games with a passer rating over 100, and has allowed the Titans to open up the playbook.

With Nick Foles back, there becomes a variety of options in the passing game for Jacksonville. However, the key is to first establish run game with Leonard Fournette, which they failed to do in the 33-13 loss to the Colts last week. Foles is still getting back into the swing of things coming off the broken collarbone, but is a more trustworthy quarterback to get a needed win late in the season than Tannehill. The reason Jacksonville signed Foles to a four-year contract for $80 million was to win games like this.

Dallas Cowboys (6-4) @ New England Patriots (9-1)

Winner: New England Patriots

If this game was in Dallas, the Cowboys would get the pick here. But in Foxboro, late in November, things can spiral out control quickly if you’re not flush with leaders at every level. The Cowboys have leaders on offense with Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliot carrying the heaviest loads. Amari Cooper has proven himself to be an elite route-runner and one of the best at his position overall, ranked 4th in receiving yards this season. The Cowboys have leaders in their front seven on defense, with Demarcus Lawrence and veteran Sean Lee. Though he may not the tackling machine he was once was, Lee is still one of the better instinctive players on defense.

When it comes to the back end of the defense, this is where the Cowboys’ armor begins to break apart at the seams. While solid tacklers, Jeff Heath and Xavier Woods have been liabilities in coverage for quite some time now. Among all safeties this season, Heath and Woods have given up the 8th and 26th-most receptions respectively, according to Pro Football Focus. This is a case of the Cowboys attempting to get high-end production from low-cost sources. Heath is an undrafted free agent, and Woods a 6th-rounder – the two combine for a salary of 2.6 million.

Meanwhile, Belichick was quoting 34th POTUS and Supreme Allied Commander Dwight D. Eisenhower this week, in explaining how preparation can vary in relevance once the battle actually begins. Adjusting to your opponent on-the-fly, Belichick conveyed, is what ultimately decides the game. Coming from the man who could teach a masterclass about in-game adjustments, it was a noteworthy – and rare, non-intentionally-generic reply from Belichick. The Pats lead the league in turnover differential at +18, double the next two closest teams (GB and PIT are tied with nine each). Every turnover, every second chance given to Tom Brady, despite some recent struggles this season, is an added assurance clause to your team’s death sentence that week. While Dak has played well this season, he has not faced a defense with this combination of talent and schematic deception perhaps in his whole career.

Green Bay Packers (8-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (9-1)

Winner: Green Bay Packers

Jimmy Garoppolo may have been able to get away with two ugly interceptions last week against the Cardinals, but it’s those kinds of mistakes that end up biting you against a top contender. Both picks were thrown directly at the opposing defender, suggesting Garoppolo may have some blind spots to work on. However, word on the street is Jimmy G is a winner. To make up for it, he threw for 424 yards and four touchdowns, while completing 75% of his passes. Oh, and the game-winning touchdown with under a minute left. Similar to the start of Aaron Rodgers’ career under Brett Favre, Garoppolo had the benefit of sitting and learning from one of the greatest to ever do it in Tom Brady. It has paid off, as the 6th-year QB is now 18-3 as a starter.

While Jimmy GQ may be the hottest new thing to hit the NFC, Rodgers has been doing it big since Jimmy was still at Eastern Illinois. Behind a rejuvenated team under Matt LaFleur and an infusion of young talent, the Packers have a legitimate chance to get the top seed with a win this week. RB Aaron Jones’ breakout season continued with a three-touchdown game in the Packers 24-16 win over Carolina. The biggest story has been the turnaround of the defense. The additions of LBs Za’Darius and Preston Smith, as well as S Adrian Amos continue to pay dividends each week. They’ll need all three to bring their “A” games to stop the vaunted Niners rushing attack.

Baltimore Ravens (8-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (6-4)

Winner: Baltimore Ravens

In what was thought to be a close matchup, Lamar Jackson said forget that, and blew the doors off the Houston Texans with a 41-7 victory. He was at his deadliest with four touchdowns through the air, along with his customary 70+ rushing yards. Aside from the QB’s phenomenal contributions, the Mark’s, RB Ingram and TE Andrews, have been the other key components to this unstoppable-looking offense. Ingram has been the perfect “thunder” to complement to Jackson’s “lightning”. Andrews has quickly become Jackson’s favorite target, leading the Ravens in receptions (48), receiving yards (598), and touchdowns (6). Defensively, with starting CB Jimmy Smith back in the fold, the Ravens arguably boast the deepest secondary in football.

For L.A., it’s looking like desperate times already as they unloaded with Todd Gurley to the tune of 28 touches last week. It was by far his highest usage in a game this season, and the still the Rams seemed to struggle offensively. The coaching staff has tried to limit Gurley’s touches this season to keep him healthy for the long-term, but without his dominant presence, the offense hasn’t been the same. To be fair, Gurley churned out 133 total yards and a score in the win over Chicago. Jared Goff, on the other hand, finished with just 179 passing yards and an interception. Fortunately, his two primary targets, Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks, are expected to return this week from injury. The Rams will have to hope to win in a shootout, because right now, defenses have no answer for Jackson.

Note: This page is updated throughout the week to account for the latest injury updates and news around the league.