NFL Pick’ems: Week 13

Last Week’s Picks: 9-5

Overall Picks Records: 108-70

Happy Thanksgiving Day to All! It’s time to gobble up some wins!

Chicago Bears (5-6) @ Detroit Lions (3-7-1)

Winner: Chicago Bears

The Bears kept their season alive with a win that reminded one of the Clint Eastwood classic, “The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly”. The good – Khalil Mack showed up in the sack column for just the second time in the past seven games. His sack-fumble set up what would become the game-winning touchdown. The bad – the offensive line allowed seven tackles for loss, while the offense finished with just 2.4 yards per carry on 26 rushes. The ugly – Mitch Trubisky threw two interceptions and had a passer rating of 69.0, but did have a passing and a rushing touchdown. Fortunately for the struggling Bears, their opponent this week has seen less of the good, and more of the bad and ugly this season.

The Lions unsurprisingly came up just short against an inferior team, once again playing down to their competition with the best of them. Jeff Driskel threw three picks, and the passing game was shut down by a bottom-third defense. On a positive note, RB Bo Scarborough had an excellent game with 98 yards on 18 carries and looks like a potential candidate to compete for the Lions starting job next season. They’ll need to feed to him again this week, as QB Jeff Driskel’s availability is questionable. This means undrafted rookie out of Purdue David Blough would be the starter for Detroit.

Buffalo Bills (8-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-5)

Winner: Dallas Cowboys

Reports are that Jason Garrett’s seat has never been hotter after Jerry Jones showed visible frustration in his customary (yet still abnormal practice for an owner) post-game interview. Thanks to a plethora of missed opportunities and a general lack of situational awareness, the Cowboys are hanging on to the division lead by a thread. With their coach’s back against the wall, expect to see a spirited effort by the team in all three phases. However, spirited or not, they’ll have to get through one of the toughest defenses in the league. The Bills allow the third-fewest yards (289) and points (15.7) per game. If the Cowboys are going to win this game, Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper will have to revive their brilliant connection after failing to hook up for a single catch last week.

Though he did throw one pick in the 20-3 win over Denver, Allen has taken much better care of the ball of late. This has allowed Buffalo to stick to their formula of running the ball, keeping the time of possession in their favor, while smothering offenses game in and game out. They have a workable committee in Frank Gore – who remarkably just surpassed Barry Sanders for third on the all-time rushing list – plus the shifty rookie Devin Singletary. WR John Brown has become a reliable threat for Allen, leading the Bills with 856 receiving yards. While Dallas hasn’t been in top form, this is a good measuring stick for which direction the Bills could be trending late in the season. Still, the Cowboys are in desperation mode, so it’ll be a significant challenge stopping their offensive trio on the road.

New Orleans Saints (9-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-8)

Winner: New Orleans Saints

These teams met three weeks ago in a result that shocked just about everyone around the league, as the Falcons went on the road and spanked the Saints, 26-9. With a record of 3-3 in their past six games meetings with the Falcons, it’s not a stretch to say the Saints don’t match up well against their NFC South rivals. In those six games, Julio Jones averaged five receptions for 99 yards per game. Defensively, they’ve held the Saints to scores of 9, 17, and 23. Most of the games come down to one score, and that could be the case again this week. However, the magic from the Falcons back-to-back wins within the division has worn off after a 35-22 loss to the Buccaneers. Matt Ryan went back to his inefficient ways, throwing a pick and losing one of two fumbles.

The Saints will be salivating for vengeance, and for a win to keep pace for the top seed in the NFC. At the moment they’re tied with Seattle (with the tiebreaker in hand), and one game behind the 49ers. They were fortunate in their 34-31 victory over the Panthers last week, as Carolina’s kicker missed two extra points, plus the go-ahead field goal with two minutes remaining. Good teams find a way, though, right? Drew Brees and the Saints will be determined to do just that in this contest.

Tennessee Titans (6-5) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-5)

Winner: Tennesee Titans

It seems that Ryan Tannehill has turned a corner in his 7th year, and has learned how to consistently play good football at the QB position. His years of toiling in Miami are starting to pay off in a big way, as he has a chance to lead the Titans to a potential division lead in December. Tannehill is doing all of the little things; he’s making the correct decisions, placing the ball in the right spot instead of a yard ahead or behind his man. He is tied with Lamar Jackson for 3rd-best passer rating in the NFL (111.4), and is 4-1 through five starts. Combined with Derrick Henry’s seemingly annual late-season push, the Titans offense is one of the hottest in the league.

Colts Tight End Eric Ebron was placed on season-ending I.R. this week after revealing he’s been putting off ankle surgery in hopes of finishing the season. With T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell and Marlon Mack also slated to miss this game, the Colts are not the same team that began with a 5-2 record. After losing three of their last four games, they’ve lost their division lead to the Texans, and the Wild Card spot to the Bills and Steelers. While it wouldn’t be shocking to see Jacoby Brissett make do with what he’s got and have a strong performance, the odds are against this team with a surging Titans club coming to town.

San Francisco 49ers (10-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-2)

Winner: Baltimore Ravens

Whether by luck or not, the creators of the NFL schedule, starting with Senior VP of Scheduling Howard Katz and Senior Manager of Broadcasting Charlotte Carey, have done an amazing job this year. This is another blockbuster matchup between two elite teams late in the season – a legitimate potential preview of this year’s Super Bowl – what more could fans ask for?

While Jimmy Garoppolo has proven himself to be one of the top 10 QBs in the league, there is simply nothing – anywhere, on any team – like Lamar Jackson. Rams Safety Eric Weddle, a veteran of 13 seasons, was almost at a loss for words attempting to explain what his defense felt like trying to defend Jackson. Essentially, Weddle conveyed that they had no clue on how to deal with a QB like Lamar and the Ravens offense, who embarrassed the Rams 45-6 on Monday Night Football. Don’t worry Eric, you’re not alone. The Ravens have soundly defeated some of the league’s top contenders by 14+ points, including the Patriots, Seahawks, and Texans. While Baltimore is certainly favored, this is arguably the most balanced team they will face all season.

The biggest difference between San Francisco and the rest of the Ravens’ opponents this season, is that the Niners have the ability to put significant pressure on quarterbacks with just a four-man rush. Behind Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner, Dee Ford, and Arik Armstead, each man has a chance to break through on any given play. This would allow the Niners defense to have a QB “Spy”, or a man to shadow Jackson on the majority of their snaps. Unfortunately, one of the four rushers, Ford, will be out for this contest. If there is a defense left that can stop the Ravens, it feels like this would be the one. Yet, given the undiscovered zone Jackson is right now, it still feels unlikely.

New York Jets (4-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-11)

Winner: New York Jets

The Jets completed the upset of the week with a 34-3 demolition of the Oakland Raiders. Sam Darnold appears to have shaken off the early struggles, and has helped turn his club’s season around with three straight solid performances. The defense stepped up in a big way stuffing RB Josh Jacobs for just 34 yards on 10 carries. The Jets are beginning to play like a team, and are receiving contributions from across the board.

For the Bengals, the fire continues to spread, After benching Andy Dalton for Ryan Finley, head coach Zac Taylor has decided to go back to Dalton citing his veteran presence. The Bengals just want to win, he says. Despite projections that WR A.J. Green could be back by this point in the season, he continues to recover from surgery, and the Bengals offense continues its woes.

Cleveland Browns (5-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)

Winner: Cleveland Browns

There’s been tons of noise surrounding this much-anticipated “rematch”, despite the fact the primary instigators of the ugly helmet-swinging incident will not be playing. Myles Garrett and Maurkice Pouncey are still suspended, while Mason Rudolph has been benched in favor of Devlin Hodges. DT Larry Ogunjobi did land a cheap shot on Rudolph and will return from his one-game suspension – but there are more important matters to settle for both teams. The Steelers are clinging on to the final Wild Card spot, while the Browns essentially need to win out to keep their playoff hopes alive. On top of Pouncey’s absence, Pittsburgh will be without the services of WR Ju-Ju Smith Schuster, and possibly RB James Conner.

The Browns second-year RB Nick Chubb trails only Christian McCaffrey with 1,117 rushing yards. This game will decide whether there is really still some fight left in these Dawgs, or if these past few wins have just been a big tease. Logic, and Browns history says the latter. However, a win here and Cleveland will be in decent position to run the table. Granted, they’d have to beat the Ravens for a second time this season – but aside from that, they have three winnable games against the Cardinals, and twice against the Bengals. It would be classic Browns to blow this opportunity, but with the Steelers missing some key players, Cleveland’s talent should push them over the edge.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) @ Miami Dolphins (2-9)

Winner: Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles depressing season got even worse with 17-9 loss to the Seahawks, an offensive debacle in which Carson Wentz turned the ball over four times (two picks, two lost fumbles). Though they may win this week, it’s clear this version of the Eagles is not ready for contention. Similar to the Browns’ circumstances, the Eagles will need to run the table but have a favorable schedule to finish out the season. They’ll get a pivotal rematch against the Cowboys sandwiched between three winnable matchups – the Giants, and the Redskins twice. This matchup is no longer the auto-win it was at the start of the season. Regardless, Philly has enough to win by double digits.

Washington Redskins (2-9) @ Carolina Panthers (5-6)

Winner: Carolina Panthers

Due to the inability of either the Cowboys or Eagles to take the bull by the horns, the Redskins, at 2-9, are still mathematically alive to win the division. Dwayne Haskins got his first win in the NFL by defeating the Detroit Lions, 19-16. He had a decent game, leading the Redskins on a game-winning drive that was capped with a field goal by Dustin Hopkins. It was what Haskins did during the final seconds that had everyone talking. The Redskins were lining up for a “victory formation” kneel down to end the game with eight seconds left, but Haskins was nowhere to be found. Where was he? Well, thinking the game was over, he was taking a selfie with a fan. There was a mixture of reactions, ranging from “this kid is unprofessional” to “it was an honest mistake by a young man”. Either way, it’s an embarrassing moment that Haskins will get over.

While the glow of Kyle Allen’s aura has dimmed, he bounced back with a superb performance in New Orleans. The Panthers ultimately lost 34-31, but Allen did his part by throwing for 250 yards and three touchdowns. Christian McCaffrey continues to dominate the league, averaging 155 total yards per game. His “shake n’ bake” moves are reminiscent of a young LaDainian Tomlinson. His understanding of the game combined with a polished set of fundamentals make him the most complete back in football, and a pure joy to watch. While the Redskins have an underrated defensive line, McCaffrey is going to get his.

Green Bay Packers (8-3) @ New York Giants (2-8)

Winner: Green Bay Packers

Green Bay got its wake-up call in San Francisco as they were thoroughly dominated by the Niners, 38-7. The Packers were simply outmuscled in the trenches – the defense reverted back to its old, soft ways, while the offense allowed five sacks of Aaron Rodgers. RBs Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams were held to modest totals, and the Packers offense was never able to get into a rhythm. It’s a concerning development, if only for the fact that it gives teams a blueprint on how to attack the Pack come the postseason.

While Giants QB Daniel Jones had a decent passing performance (two TDs, zero picks), his inability to hold on to the ball continues to kill his team. Khalil Mack’s sack-fumble extended the Bears lead to double digits and the Giants never recovered, in an eventual 19-14 loss. Of course, the offensive line has to take some of the blame for letting rushers come in virtually untouched at times. But that’s going to happen in the NFL. As a quarterback your, job is to absorb those hits while keeping a strong grip on the football. Facing one of the league’s best pass-rushing duos in Preston and Za’Darius Smith, the offense will have its hands full again. Saquon Barkley has been largely ineffective since returning from a bad high-ankle sprain.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7)

Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Buccs earned a deserved 35-22 victory over the Falcons on the road last week. Jameis Winston threw for 313 yards and three touchdowns, but also two interceptions. Luckily for him, the defense had arguably its most complete outing of the season. forcing two turnovers and sacking Matt Ryan six times. While the Buccs may be the more logical pick over a struggling Jaguars team, Winston’s inconsistency makes this team very difficult to trust.

It’s been a bit of a nightmarish start for Nick Foles in Jacksonville after missing ten weeks with a broken clavicle. Foles hasn’t played bad, completing 68% of his passes and throwing for three touchdowns to one interception. But the Jags have lost back-to-back games since his return, and virtually fallen out of the playoff race. This will be his fourth game; ostensibly, a veteran like Foles could begin to make strides playing with a new offense. The Buccs defense is equally as inconsistent as it’s quarterback, giving the Jags a slight edge in this matchup.

Los Angeles Rams (6-5) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-7-1)

Winner: Los Angeles Rams

The Rams team that was obliterated by the Ravens 45-6 on Monday Night Football was a far cry away from the Super Bowl contenders we came to know just last season. The defense looked completely lost trying to defend against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense – understandable. The offense, however, only scored six points? At home? On national television?! This current group of Rams has lost its way, and while that might sound like a silly way to describe a 6-5 team, it’s the truth.

For Jared Goff this season has been a huge step back. The decision-making has been poor, the execution has been poor, the mechanics have been poor at times. Part of the Rams greatness last season was the deadly efficiency in the passing game that would make you pay for stacking the box against Todd Gurley. Both of those elements are gone. Gurley had nine touches for 19 total yards in the loss to Baltimore. The Rams may win this week and may even make the playoffs, but another run to the Super Bowl looks increasingly implausible.

The Cardinals have had a lot of moving parts this season – a new quarterback, a new head coach, a new system/scheme. They’re still in the process of learning how to win, and how to play off of each other. They’ve lost some close games that could have gone their way with a made play here or there, but this a results-based business. Kyler Murray has shown enough this season for Arizona to feel comfortable building around him going forward. For now, they’ll need to grit their teeth, take their lumps, and learn from every mistake they can this season. A year from now, there will be less forgiveness and less margin for error.

Oakland Raiders (6-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs

The Raiders regressed toward the kind of mistake-ridden football we expected to see from them this season, getting rocked 34-3 by the Jets. There’s a large gap between Jets QB Sam Darnold and the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, who the Raiders will get the frightening opportunity to defend against this week. The mainstays of the Raiders offense, QB Derek Carr and Josh Jacobs, were shut down at the worst possible time of the season. Carr had a season-low 52.8 passer rating, while Josh Jacobs was held to a season-low 34 yards on 10 carries. With a logjam in the AFC of teams with six wins, it could be a loss that bites the Raiders in the end.

With each game Mahomes plays since returning from a dislocated knee injury, the virtuoso QB looks closer and closer to being fully healthy. Mahomes and the Chiefs will be well-rested coming off a Bye week, and head coach Andy Reid has them revving up for a post-season run. The Chiefs can, and will solidify their grip on the AFC West division title with a big-time win over their hated rivals.

Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) @ Denver Broncos (3-8)

Winner: Denver Broncos

Two brilliantly disappointing teams playing in a disappointing late-season matchup. Who will find the worse way to lose – will the Broncos blow a second-half lead, or will the Chargers turn the ball over on the potential game-winning possession? Or.. will both teams just choke all the way down to a tie? Who knows. What is known at this point: don’t trust Philip Rivers and the Chargers. It’s been an unfortunate, possibly career-altering stretch for Rivers in the past couple of weeks.

No matter who you are, or what you’ve accomplished, when you throw seven back-breaking interceptions in two games that were within one possession… Teammates start to look at you differently, wondering if everything is kosher. The Chargers had high hopes at the start of this season, and things haven’t worked out – but Rivers has decided he’s going out guns-a-blazin’.

Reports are that Drew Lock will get his shot to start for the Broncos at QB. He can’t do much worse than Brandon Allen’s 10/25, 82 yards and one interception performance against the Bills last week. The Broncos still boast of the more talent-laden defenses in football, and if there’s any facet of either of these teams to trust, it would be them.

New England Patriots (10-1) @ Houston Texans (7-4)

Winner: New England Patriots

Here we are, again. Bill Belichick, Bill O’Brien, different year, same story… Belichick and the Patriots have dominated O’Brien and the Texans for years, and seem to have a big brother-like mental advantage over Houston. No matter how dynamically DeShaun Watson has been playing in the weeks prior, he looks confused and hesitant against New England. You would think at some point, the Texans have gotten enough looks at the Pats to devise a gameplan to win, just once. But the Patriots are like a chameleon, changing schemes to adapt to their needs at any that moment.

There’s little doubt at this point that Tom Brady is, indeed, finally in the midst of a decline. His numbers are lower than they’ve been in, in several categories, in over a decade at this point in a given season. Now, that doesn’t mean that the Patriots can’t still win the Super Bowl behind one of the best defenses seen in recent memory. However, it does mean that a Brady-lead, multi-score comeback like we’ve seen so many times, is less likely to happen than it’s ever been. With that being said, their defensive advantage over Houston, along with Belichick’s mastery of in-game situational awareness, should allow them to be ones with a multi-score lead in this matchup.

Minnesota Vikings (8-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (9-2)

Winner: Seattle Seahawks

In the last game in a line of great matchups this week, two NFC heavyweights will finish things off in Seattle on Monday Night Football. While Russell Wilson’s production has slowed down a bit, he remains a favorite (along with Lamar Jackson) for League MVP. On defense, DE Jadaveon Clowney is set to return from injury, and has been increasingly impactful as he continues to acclimate to his new team. Seattle is in top form after winning four straight games, three of which came on the road. Now, back in the cradle of the “12th Man”, Wilson and the Hawks have been winning big games at home in December for nearly a decade.

By now, we know the story on Kirk Cousins. While he’s been on fire lately, when it comes to playing good teams in primetime games, he consistently struggles to make the plays that end up winning the game for his team. His record of 0-7 on MNF, the worst for a starting quarterback in the traditional game’s history, certainly speaks to that. It can be argued that Minnesota is the more balanced, complete team in this matchup. However, in crunch time, Wilson has been there, done that, while Cousins is still learning how to get it done.

Note: This page is updated throughout the week to account for the latest injury updates and news around the league.