NFL Pick’ems: 2019 Divisional Playoffs Edition – Sunday

Houston Texans (11-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

The Breakdown: This is the best pure matchup of the weekend. With the return of J.J. Watt last week for the Texans, everything has changed in Houston. This is like the Seahawks getting Lynch back; the feeling is there that this could be the year. Watt didn’t just return to action last against the Bills, his sack in the second quarter was the turning point of the game. Not only did it prevent a potential touchdown from Buffalo, but it also shifted the momentum palpably back into the Texans’ favor for the first time in the game. Watt looked healthy and in mid-season form. His leadership on the field and on the sidelines has been visible – a constant source of knowledge for the defense, and optimism for the whole team.

It is for this reason, and the return of speed demon WR Will Fuller, that the Texans have a legitimate shot to win this game. Back to Fuller for a moment (he deserves it). The importance of Fuller’s availability in this game cannot be understated. He is the Texans “secret” weapon, if you will, the X-factor for the Texans offense. With Fuller on the field, everything is opened up, pressure is taken off of primary receiver DeAndre Hopkins and slot receiver Kenny Stills the defense has to delegate resources to cover his side of the field, or be burned – there is no other option for defenses covering a healthy Fuller in this particular vertical offense.

Oh, there might be one more reason the Texans could win… That guy at quarterback – the one breaking out of tackles like a superhero… what was his name? Watts… Waters…? Watson! I’ve heard he’s pretty good, but all we hear about is Mahomes, Mahomes, Mahomes. Well, they don’t call him “Showtime” for no reason. With Mahomes back healthy and a full complement of weapons available, there is no more dangerous offense in the league, including the Ravens. The reigning MVP had a scary knee injury on national television midway through the season that took away three games, and looked out of sorts for a few weeks after that. However, Mahomes has made a speedy recovery and is back to throwing the most beautifully accurate balls known to mankind.

What makes Kansas City’s offense one of the explosive units in the history of the league is the unique set of primary and secondary targets, combined with one of great offensive minds of the modern era. Watching head coach Andy Reid’s offense is like watching a circus of pre-snap movement, complete with smoke (screens) and ghosts (motions). It is one of the most difficult offenses to figure out because they are constantly showing you one thing while giving you another.

The Deciding Matchup: WR Will Fuller Vs. CB Bashaud Breeland

As mentioned earlier, Fuller has the talent and track-record to not only change the gameplan of the opposing defense, but to do some real damage as well. DeAndre Hopkins will likely draw the Chiefs’ top cover corner, Kendall Fuller. This leaves a mix of options to cover the Texans’ Fuller (no relation), as well as the other weapons for Houston. The Chiefs Bashaud Breeland is a veteran corner of seven seasons, some of which were decent, others, not so much. The positive side for KC is that Breeland is in his prime, physically and mentally, and is probably playing the best ball of his career. With good speed and ball-skills, Breeland is actually a decent matchup against Fuller. The problem for Breeland in the past has been a propensity to get burned on double moves and fakes – something Fuller excels at. If Breeland can show he has learned from his mistakes, this matchup could end up being a real battle.

Final Say: This is an exciting matchup between two of the four preeminent quarterbacks of the next decade. The Chiefs defense has stepped up their game significantly from a year ago, where they were an offsides call away from defeating the Patriots and appearing in the Super Bowl. Steve Spagnuolo has this defense playing a tougher, more disciplined style football, and it could make all the difference. While the Texans and Deshaun Watson will put up a valiant fight, the Chiefs look like a team of destiny.

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs

Seattle Seahawks (12-5) @ Green Bay Packers (13-3)

The Breakdown: Perhaps it is fitting that the weekend will be finished off with a titanic matchup between two old-time rival QBs, each looking to gain a leg up on the other in the “legacy” debate. This game is the dessert to an unreal four-course meal, and should not disappoint. Both of these QBs are legendary for their ability to keep their respective teams in games down to the final whistle, or if need be, into overtime. Of course, the famous (or infamous, depending which side you’re for) comeback in the 2014 NFC Championship between these two clubs ended in OT, and will go down as one of the crazier finishes in playoff history. Let’s not also forget the “Fail Mary” game, in which replacement referees (remember that?) made a controversial game-deciding touchdown call on a pass that appeared to be intercepted by Green Bay.

Whatever the case, it seems when these two clubs play each other with these two QBs, they produce some of wildest comebacks and/or finishes we’ve seen and we wouldn’t mind some more. While the QBs are the same, the players around them have changed significantly since that NFC Championship game. Back then, it was Russell Wilson and Seahawks that had a top tier, bully-like defense – while Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were a high-flying, vertical passing offense. Today, it is virtually the opposite.

The combination of Za’Darius and Preston Smith as bookends on defense for Green Bay has been one of the most productive, solid duos in the NFL this season. Za’Darius is a uniquely skilled player with the body type and tenacity to line up anywhere on the defensive line, including inside the tackles. This makes him one of the most difficult players to gameplan for on offense, as nearly every lineman will have to prove they can block him at one point or another. On the other side of Za’Darius, Preston has quietly been one of the more consistent sack-specialists in the NFC the past several seasons, and has taken his game to a more well-rounded, complete level this year.

Behind these two impact players, the Packers secondary has evolved into its best version since the 2011 Super-Bowl winning unit – which, let’s be honest, aside from an aged Charles Woodson, was not the strength of that team. This version has the chance to be very good, if not great, with talent and athleticism across the board. Certainly, the extraordinary play of the front seven has allowed them to succeed, but in big moments, the secondary has shown up this season time and time again.

One thing that will not have changed, remarkably, will be Marshawn Lynch lining up in the backfield for Seattle. He may be older, and perhaps a little chunkier, but the man they call “Beast Mode” still has a fight-or-flight running style on the field, and will be a factor in the red zone for the Hawks. There is a concerted effort it seems, on the part of the Hawks and head coach Pete Carroll, to not repeat an old mistake when the time comes. Specifically, to not get too cute, and simply get Lynch the ball near the goal line. We’ll see if they stick to it – after all, there are a number of options in the passing game that could sway Seattle’s decision-making on offense.

The Deciding Matchup: WR D.K. Metcalf Vs The Packers Secondary

Seahawks receiver D.K. Metcalf, who inexplicably fell to the second round in the NFL Draft, set a rookie playoff record with a dominant, 160-yard performance against the Eagles in the Wild Card round. While Metcalf has been a steady target for Wilson all season, being a rookie, he has flown under the radar for the most part. He’s seen tons of one-on-one looks this season, as defenses must also account for the speedy Tyler Lockett on the other side. Well, if Mike Pettine is worth his salt, Metcalf will certainly have the attention of the Packers defense this Sunday. He is a matchup nightmare, and the Packers arguably don’t have a DB ready to successfully play him in straight-up, man-to-man coverage. Jaire Alexander will be their best bet, but the talented young DB is going to need some help from his safeties.

Final Say: Historically, beating the Rodgers-led Packers at Lambeau Field has been virtually impossible. If there is a quarterback that could do it, Wilson has as good a chance as any right up there with Mahomes or Jackson. With that being said, Rodgers and the Packers didn’t have a top tier defense throughout all those years of winning – now, they do. Further, they have a great running game led by the vastly underrated Aaron Jones, coming off the most un-lauded 19-total-touchdown season in NFL history. Jones has shown talent this season that is comparable or superior to that of an Ezekiel Elliott. Yes, you heard correctly. Jones and rest of the Packers have been disrespected all season when it comes to the topic of top contenders. That ends this weekend.

Winner: Green Bay Packers