NFL Pick’ems: Week 3

Last Week’s Picks: 10-6

Overall Picks Record: 21-11

One week and a handful of quarterback injuries later, and what do you know, the NFL is still highly unpredictable! Things were definitely shaken up, making picks this week a little more difficult.

Let’s get it!

Tennessee Titans (1-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)

Winner: Tennessee Titans

Except for the growing Legend of Gardner Minshew, it’s been a tumultuous five days for the Jaguars, starting with a loss to the rival Texans in a game they could have and nearly did win. During the game, head coach Doug Marrone and franchise CB Jalen Ramsey – arguably the Jags best overall player – got into a heated argument on the sideline and had to be separated by teammates. After the loss, it’s been reported that Ramsey wants to be traded out of Jacksonville. It will be interesting to see how things work out with Ramsey in this Thursday night matchup.

Back to Minshew for a second – we’ve heard some pretty… curious things about Gardner Minshew that have intrigued the internet, namely, walking off the team plane dressed like a 70’s porn-star, and stretching in the locker room wearing nothing but a jock-strap. While this is undoubtedly NFL Films gold, the best part of the story might be that the kid can actually play. While completing 77% of his passes thus far, Minshew has been flying around the field making plays for the Jags with his legs. He may not be Baker Mayfield, but he could certainly pass for him on the field as they play a similar style, are the same height (6’1), and display the same kind of unabashed swag.

The Titans are coming off a disappointing, let-down of a loss against the Colts that is classic of the Mariota-led iteration of this franchise. Week one, they blow out the Browns in an impressive, dominant fashion, only to follow up with a listless 19-17 loss. While the Colts are by no means a push-over, it’s a team that the Titans should be beating at this point in Mariota’s career, especially considering the Colts’ circumstances this year. Is this going to be it for Mariota? A Kirk-Cousins-like career filled with inconsistency and mediocrity? Mariota should be able to exploit a Jags defense that is, at the moment, in emotional disarray.

Miami Dolphins (0-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-0)

Winner: Dallas Cowboys

Beginning to wonder if this should just end at “Winner” when it comes to picking Dolphins games. Sometimes it’s difficult to play Devil’s Advocate for a team, but here it’s just impossible. This team has given up a despicable amount of points (102), the most in a team’s first two games in NFL history. Let the tanking continue. Either Dak or Zeke will have a career day, and the Cowboys roll to 3-0.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-0)

Winner: Buffalo Bills

That’s right, Buffalo’s going to 3-0! But hold up, Bills fans, not all records are created equally. You see, even after this week, Buffalo will yet to have played an actual, good, playoff-contending football team. Having defeated the Jets and Giants is good because it says, “Hey, at least we’re not the Jets or Giants, am I right?” But at the end of the day, the Bills have accomplished nothing of great merit, yet.

Now, getting to 3-0 would certainly be a positive, and is a great position to be in for any team if they can beat the Bengals this week. It would show they are above falling to the classic “trap game”, one mark of a good team. However, the real measuring stick comes in week 4, against the one and only New England Patriots. If the Bills can put up a fight against the big boys, they just might gain enough confidence to go on a run.

Detriot Lions (1-0-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)

Winner: Detroit Lions

The Lions are coming off a big-time upset victory over the Chargers, and will look to do the same on the road this week against the Eagles. It’s a much different challenge, however, between defending against a pocket passer like Philip Rivers, and trying to contain Carson Wentz and his playmaking abilities outside the pocket. Defensively the Lions are starting to come together under Matt Patricia. Offensively, Detroit should look to feed RB Kerryon Johnson – who looks ready to have to a breakout season – and hold possession as much as they can while keeping Wentz off the field. Just don’t run it in the direction of Eagles DT Fletcher Cox.

Wentz and the Eagles still have some things to figure out, as the offense has looked inept in the first half of both games this season. The second half comebacks should ease the collective minds of Philly fans, however, there is still some inconsistency in Wentz’ game that, in the grand scheme of things this season, could be fatal. Remember, Wentz has missed eight games over the past two seasons, plus playoff experience that is invaluable to the development of young quarterback. So it’s fair to say he’s a bit behind in his progress. Further complicating things, the Eagles’ will likely be without their top receivers Alshon Jeffery and Desean Jackson in this game, leaving Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor to carry the load. If Wentz is able to regain his 2017 form, the Eagles are as dangerous as any team in the league.

New York Jets (0-2) @ New England Patriots (2-0)

Winner: New England Patriots

It was truly a bizarre week for both of these teams. The Patriots signed, threw a touchdown to, and won a game with Antonio Brown, only to cut him days later as the receiver faces sexual misconduct allegations. The Jets lost their starting quarterback to mononucleosis, then their backup to a severe ankle-injury, and are now on to their third-string quarterback just two weeks into the season.

Obviously, the Jets have more to worry about than the Pats, who quickly rid themselves of an oncoming disaster. New York’s problem, at least until Sam Darnold returns, will be finding ways to score. The New England defense has pitched back-to-back shutouts to start the season, and it be wouldn’t a shock to see them post a third straight on backup QB Luke Stocker and the Jets.

Atlanta Falcons (1-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-1)

Winner: Atlanta Falcons

With the injury to Drew Brees, the Falcons have a chance to make a serious push in the AFC South, and possibly win the division. Games like this, they’ve got to have though, as the hardest part of their schedule will come in the next few weeks. Julio Jones’ game-winning touchdown saved the Falcons from the dreaded 0-2 start for a playoffs-hopeful team. This week should be an entertaining matchup against the Colts’ top corner Pierre Desir, who likes to play a physical bump-and-run style. It will be interesting to see if the Colts decide to test Julio with press coverage, playing to Desir’s strengths, or if they’ll back off and show the elite receiver some deserved respect.

The Colts will be without key defensive leaders Darius Leonard, their leading tackler in 2018, and versatile DE Jabaal Sheard who is still recovering from minor knee surgery, but could return within a few weeks. Leonard is the heart of the Colts’ defensive front, and without his nose for finding the ball carrier, Atlanta may see some increased ground production that could really complicate things for the Colts’ defensive gameplan.

Oakland Raiders (1-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-1)

Winner: Minnesota Vikings

Both of these teams got a dose of reality last week after getting beat up by their divisional big brothers. At the moment, Kirk Cousins is ranked 31st in QBR with an appalling 16.2 rating, right next to the epitome of inconsistent quarterback play, Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Something has got to give here with Cousins, as it’s becoming a bit of a running joke at this point. Put Cousins against a bottom-half NFL defense, and he’ll light them up. Against a playoff-caliber, top-10 defense? The numbers and efficiency plummet. He also has a penchant for turning the ball over at the worst possible times (in the clutch). If Cousins doesn’t have big performance here against a middling Raiders defense that has no business covering the Thielen-Diggs duo, it may be time to hit the panic button in Minny.

The Raiders had an amazing first quarter against the Chiefs, going up 10-0 while stifling the game’s best offense. Then, the Chiefs had a second quarter for the ages, as Patrick Mahomes torched the Raiders defense like no defense has ever been torched in a quarter. It was shades of Doug Williams in the Super Bowl against the Broncos. That being said, offensively the Raiders look much improved with Derek Carr composing the orchestra, and the superb rookie RB Josh Jacobs providing some hard-nosed running.

Baltimore Ravens (2-0) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)

Winner: Baltimore Ravens

The juiciest of matchups this week, with two of the league’s most promising young gunslingers in a duel to decide initial supremacy in the AFC. Unfortunately, a different pair of great young competitors will not be lining up against each other due to injury. Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill continues to recover from an injured shoulder, and the Ravens’ stud CB Jimmy Smith is out due to a bum knee. Regardless, there will be fireworks aplenty in this game as both defenses are in for a massive challenge.

These two franchises don’t meet often, in fact, it will be just their 10th meeting, including playoffs, since 1999. But go figure, this will be their second game against each other in the past 10 months (smart, NFL schedulers, smart!). The last matchup came down to overtime, with the Chiefs pulling out a narrow 27-24 victory in Baltimore. As devastating as it is for the Ravens to lose their best corner before a game like this, the Chiefs might miss Tyreek Hill a bit more. They needed every bit of Hill’s irreplaceable playmaking in that game, as he finished with eight catches for a buck-thirty-nine, and converted several first downs that kept the KC offense rolling all game.

This time, the Ravens quarterback is not only more accurate, but arguably has a more dangerous receiving core. This time, the Ravens have Earl Thomas at safety. This time, the Ravens win by a field goal.

Denver Broncos (0-2) @ Green Bay Packers (2-0)

Winner: Green Bay Packers

Green Bay’s defense is rolling, having surrendered just 19 points in two games so far this season. The noticeable improvement is the result of the maturity of younger players like Kenny Clark, Jaire Alexander and Kevin King, combined with key additions like Adrian Amos, Zadarius Smith, and Darnell Savage contributing in all three layers of the defense. The stellar play has QB Aaron Rodgers screaming his defense’s legitimacy from the rooftops for all to hear. Joe Flacco and the Broncos offense has looked fairly mediocre up to this point, so the Pack should be in for another superb outing.

Carolina Panthers (0-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (0-1-1)

Winner: Arizona Cardinals

The Panthers will be without Cam Newton, who has not looked healthy for the better part of a year now. Second-year QB Kyle Allen won his only start in 2018, throwing for 228 yards, two touchdowns and rushing for another – in what was a Week 17 throwaway game for the Saints. While we don’t know too much about Allen at the pro level yet, we do know what Kyler Murray brings to the table. This could be the first victory for the top-overall pick in this year’s draft.

New York Giants (0-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)

Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jameis Winston took a step forward last week as he looked much more in control of himself, and his offense in the Buccs’ 20-14 win over the Panthers. Now, he just needs to focus on not taking two steps back this week against a vulnerable Giants defense. Rookie QB Daniel Jones will see his first career start, and will presumably be handing the ball off to Saquon Barkley a few times., or more. The Buccs are going to stack the box and make Jones play quarterback, as they say. We’ll see if the young QB, who’s been much-maligned by the New York media and others before starting a game, is up to snuff.

New Orleans Saints (1-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (2-0)

Winner: Seattle Seahawks

The Saints are without Drew Brees – and while Sean Payton remains one of the top offensive minds in the game, it’s tough to see them out-playing a Seahawks team that has been on fire lately. It’s going to take a masterful gameplan from Payton, and more importantly, mistake-free execution from Teddy Bridgewater and his mates. Bridgewater is one of the more capable backups in the league, however, the Saints should look to pound the phenomenal Alvin Kamara in this game to the tune of 30 touches. If they can soften up the Seattle defense and set up some play-action and RPO’s, the Seattle secondary is vulnerable over the top.

For Seattle, they can’t fall into thinking this will be an easy game, as the Saints still possess one of the league’s best defenses. Protection will be the key to success here, and the Hawks may want to double Cameron Jordan, who has the ability to wreck a gameplan if he’s not paid the proper attention.

Houston Texans (1-1) @ Los Angeles Chargers (1-1)

Winner: Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are coming off a disappointing loss to the Detroit Lions at home in which their kicker left seven crucial points on the board. While the points theoretically could have won the game for the Chargers, the offense was by no means “humming along” against the stingy Lion’s secondary. It’s early-season, yes, but it is also a concerning deficiency in the Chargers’ game that we’ve seen for years. Antonio Gates was legendary, and Keenan Allen is a top-flight receiver – but it seems like time and time again, when things are not going well for L.A., they’re missing that go-to guy that can be counted on to make a play. The Chargers need to find that guy before it’s too late.

The Chargers offense should find more room to work with against the Texans. Assuming their kicker doesn’t blow it again this week, L.A. is balanced enough to win a close game against a tough opponent.

The Texans have been in a couple of nail-biters so far, losing one and winning the other. This game may be too tall a task on the road, against a tough Chargers team that will be determined to bounce back in front of their home crowd. If the Texans can penetrate the Chargers defensive front and get a steady run game going, Deshaun Watson and co. might be able to do enough damage to steal one on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-0)

Winner: San Francisco 49ers

While Mason Rudolph was surprisingly productive in relieving Ben Roethlisberger, who is out for the season, the Steelers QB will need some help if he’s going to have any prolonged success. It’s time for third-year wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster to show that the faith the Steelers organization has put in him was warranted. James Connor has also been stifled thus far, forcing the Steelers to pass more than they’d like.

The 49ers’ trio of running backs has been dominant through two games, coming into this week ranked 4th in rushing (179.0 YPG). Jimmy “G” is coming along slowly but surely, as he continues to get familiar with Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Defensively the 9ers should be able to confuse/force Rudolph into some mistakes, as the inexperienced backup QB will likely need a few games to get his bearings.

Los Angeles Rams (2-0) @ Cleveland Browns (1-1)

Winner: Los Angeles Rams

This should be fun, as we could be in for a shootout between a couple of high-flying offenses facing a beat-up pair of defenses. The Browns have multiple injuries in the secondary and could be without cornerstone piece Denzel Ward, who exploded on to the scene as one of the league’s best young corners. TE David Njoku has been placed on IR. On a positive note, Baker and the Browns seemed to have found their groove last week; Odell Beckham Jr. is beginning to assert himself as the go-to guy of this offense, and the pieces are starting come together.

Aaron Donald did not practice much throughout the week and is questionable for the Rams. Assuming Donald can go, it’ll be tough sledding for the Browns rushing attack, which severely limits their offensive viability. With Gurley looking better each passing week and a multitude of injuries in the Browns secondary, the Rams’ veteran receiving core will see plenty of big-play opportunities.

Chicago Bears (1-1) @ Washington Redskins (0-2)

Winner: Chicago Bears

It’s been a slow start for Mitch Trubisky and Matt Nagy’s offense, as they’ve scored just 19 points in two games. The culprit has been a combination of poor play-calling on Nagy’s end followed by poor execution on Trubisky’s. The Bears know they need a win here to keep pace with the Packers in the AFC North. Facing the 30th-ranked Redskins defense, the time is now to get the momentum going for the rest of the season. Kicker Eddie Pineiro saved Chicago’s bacon by hitting a 53-yard game-winning field goal – perhaps finally solving Chicago’s woeful kicking issues? That remains to be seen, as there are much more pressure-filled situations than a Week 2 regular-season game.

There are few teams more depressing to talk about than the Redskins, as there looks to be no end in sight to their suffering. The hype is always more of a hopeful wish than anything resembling reality. The defense was supposed to be the strength of this team – they’re surrendering 455 yards and over 30 points per game. RB Darrius Guice was supposed to be one of the league’s next workhorses – this will be his second straight missed season due to injury.

There’s been tons of hype surrounding first-round QB Dwayne Haskins. While some of it may be warranted, a tempered eye sees the very real possibility – without any kind of meaningful help, strategically or personnel-wise from the organization on the way – of Haskins ending up like Patrick Ramsey, or Jason Campbell, or any of the other highly-touted QB’s that have tried to succeed in an environment that breeds failure. Fans in Washington are finally beginning to see through Daniel Snyder’s very expensive, shiny-new-toy facade that he would call an attempt at building a winning football team. The seats of FedEx Field have never looked emptier this early into the season.