NFL Pick’ems: Week 15

Last Week’s Picks: 12-4

Overall Picks Record: 129-81

It’s mid-December, the temperatures will have dropped below freezing for many teams this Sunday, and the real fun begins. This is when legends begin to etch their names into the history books with record-breaking finishes, on their way to a shot at hanging with the ultimate story-teller – the Lombardi Trophy.

Let’s get gritty!

New York Jets (5-8) @ Baltimore Ravens (11-2)

Winner: Baltimore Ravens

When Lamar Jackson steps onto the field at M&T Bank Stadium, he’ll be 23 yards away from breaking the single-season rushing record for a quarterback, soon to be formerly held by the explosive Michael Vick. Considering recent history, it seemed nearly unfathomable that the Ravens could continue to involve Jackson in a run-heavy offense, without incurring some sort of significant injury. Yet, here we are – the Ravens are pushing for the first seed and could clinch the division title with a win this week. Jackson has proven to be more solidly built than some of his predecessors, such as his backup, Robert Griffin III. At times, Jackson has even dealt out some punishment of his own. Speaking of RG3, the last time we saw an unstoppable read-option offense like this was his 2012 rookie season in Washington.

While the Jets allow the second-least rushing yards per game of any team, they have yet to have faced anything like Jackson and the Ravens read-option attack. RB Le’Veon Bell is expected to return after a bizarre week in which he was criticized for bowling with his family while recovering from an illness. Going back to his time in Pittsburgh, Bell is tailor-made for tough games against the Ravens. Regardless, with Darnold’s inconsistency, the Jets will be hard-pressed to keep pace, let alone outscore the Ravens on the road. Tally up the AFC North for Baltimore!

Chicago Bears (7-6) @ Green Bay Packers (10-3)

Winner: Green Bay Packers

Just as Matt Nagy and Mitch Trubisky seemed to be figuring things out, it appears as though the Bears might be the odd men out in the stacked race for the NFC Wild Card spots. An important factor in this game is the possible return of Bears DT Akiem Hicks, who’s been out since Week 5. With Hicks in the lineup, teams don’t have the luxury of being able to double and triple-team Khalil Mack without some consequence. Not only can Hicks make plays himself, but he makes his teammates better – a rare quality, indeed. Will that be enough to put the Bears over top of the Packers, in Lambeau? Probably not, but it will make things a lot more intriguing in this game.

The Packers remedied a recurring self-inflicted wound by feeding RB Aaron Jones for 23 touches, the most he’s seen since Week 5. Jones rewarded the Pack with 192 yards and touchdown in the win over the Redskins. It wasn’t flashy, it wasn’t dominant, but it was the way the Packers are going to have to play if they’re going to win it all this year. The days of calling 50 pass plays and letting Aaron Rodgers go handle things are over. A heavy dose of Jones and Jamaal Williams, followed by the elite decision-making of A-Rod on third and fourth downs = a recipe for success in this game, and in the post-season.

New England Patriots (10-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-12)

Winner: New England Patriots

What a turn of events the past few weeks has been for New England. The Pats have lost three of their last five games. Then, last week, the Patriots admitted to ‘inappropriately’ videotaping the Bengals sideline in during their game against Cleveland, but claim it was done by an independent contractor… as if that somehow makes it better? According to the Washington Post, the Patriots could face heavy fines and even the loss of a draft pick. If they were playing anybody but the Bengals this week, there would be serious questions of whether the Pats wouldn’t be on their way to a third-straight loss.

However, this is Bill Belichick were talking about, the master of eliminating distraction – sometimes even using it to fuel the hidden, inner-chip on his team’s shoulders. One of his famous quotes ironically came preparing to play the Bengals the week after losing a game to Kansas City back in 2014. “We’re on to Cincinnati”, Belichick repeatedly replied to various questions about his team’s struggles. The message was, whatever has happened/is happening, we’re focused on winning. The Patriots would go on to defeat the Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX. It’s not that there aren’t some legitimate concerns with this year’s Pats, particularly the state of Brady and offense. The moral of the story, though, is: when you’re thinking of counting the Patriots out, don’t.

Seattle Seahawks (10-3) @ Carolina Panthers (5-8)

Winner: Seattle Seahawks

It’s been a tale of two halves of the season for Kyle Allen. As surprisingly accurate and efficient Allen was in the first half of the season, he’s been equally as calamitous in the second half. The Panthers have lost five in a row, including a 40-20 beat-down by Falcons this past Sunday. It wasn’t a great start for interim head coach Perry Fewell. The long-time coordinator has bounced around the league, and undoubtedly is a placeholder until Panthers owner David Tepper finds his man for next season.

For Seattle, Russell Wilson has hit a bit of wall in his MVP bid, after having his worst day of the season last week against the Rams. Certainly, the offensive line is deserved of some blame, as Aaron Donald and the Rams defense were habitually in the Hawks’ backfield. However, Wilson’s scrambling magic has not been as effective of late, leading to an untimely, inconsistent stretch for the offense. It’s reasonable to assume the Hawks peaked too early in the season, and are currently enduring a regression that can happen to even the best of teams (i.e. the Patriots). Ultimately, betting against the Wilson-led Hawks has been a losing prop for years now, and against the plunging Panthers, it would be almost foolish.

Houston Texans (8-5) Tennessee Titans (8-5)

Winner: Tennessee Titans

This is a sexy sleeper-pick for the game of the week, as these two AFC South rivals will go head-to-head for the division lead in mid-December. The Titans have been one of the hottest teams in the league, however, they’re still on the outside looking in on the playoff picture. To say this is a monumental game for the Titans franchise would be an understatement. Tennessee and Tannehill have a chance to make a statement in this contest. A statement that says: we, the Titans, are the team to contend with in the AFC South – now and in the future. A victory here would go a long way to ensuring an extension for Tannehill in Tennessee, if he hasn’t already done enough to earn one.

Thanks to, let’s say, an interesting choice by the NFL schedulers, a loss in this game by the Texans does not mean the end. The Titans and Texans will face off again two weeks from now in a Week 17 matchup. This time the game will be in Houston. It’s easy to see a scenario in which that ultimately becomes the deciding game for the division. At this juncture, it’s too tough an ask for the Texans 18th ranked rush defense to contain Derrick Henry, the Titans’ workhorse running back. Henry is on a four-game streak with over 100 rushing yards, and has been as unstoppable as any back in football. The Texans will get their chance for revenge back in Houston, Week 17.

Miami Dolphins (3-10) @ New York Giants (2-11)

Winner: Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Head Coach Brian Flores was fuming after Miami’s last-second loss to the Jets, feeling his team had been severely wronged by the officials. It was a rather fiery side of Flores, one that you couldn’t be sure was there under his usual calm demeanor, until actually seeing it. While it may not be the best optics for the league, it’s a sign of Flores’ passion for the game, and for the effort from his players. Despite everything that was said about the Dolphins’ intentions heading into this season, Flores has the players scrapping for every win they can get their hands on. Plus, a little “Fitzmagic” never hurt a team with nothin’ to lose.

The Giants blew a two-touchdown lead against the Eagles, letting a prime opportunity to cripple the playoff hopes of their division rivals slip through their fingers. It’s been a common theme of the Giants season, as the team has been found wanting in several occasions on potential game-winning, or game-tying drives. It turns out Daniel Jones’ ankle-injury is slightly worse than initially thought, and the rookie’s campaign is likely over. That means Eli Manning’s farewell tour will continue for at least a week, and the old vet will get to showcase what he has left in the tank for… well, for a backup position at best, next season.

Philadelphia Eagles (6-7) @ Washington Redskins (3-10)

Winner: Philadelphia Eagles

While these two teams have been hit hard by injury throughout the season, this is a matchup that tends to be as spirited as any throughout the league. These teams don’t like each other for various reasons, and the Redskins wouldn’t mind spoiling the Eagles season, even if it means handing the division to Dallas. Carson Wentz kept the Eagles season alive with an impressive, albeit late-in-the-game performance on Monday Night Football. While Wentz’ abysmal first half deserves to be noted, his response and the elevation of his game in the second half also is a compelling development in Eagles’ story. It showed Philly is not ready to go down without a fight this season, and will likely be playing in a pivotal game next week against Dallas for the NFC East title.

The Redskins phenomenally-talented running back Derrius Guice can’t catch a break from the injury bug, suffering a sprained knee ligament last week that will end his season. The silver lining: we get to see more of vintage Adrian Peterson, better known as AD, AP, whichever moniker you prefer. At age 34, you will not find a running back more eager to prove his doubters wrong than this man. Peterson has had some memorable games against Philly, and it would not be a shock to see the living legend rip off three-straight 100-yard games to surpass 1,000 on the season. At this point, rookie QB Dwayne Haskins’ focus should be on protecting the football, and more importantly, himself, at all costs.

Denver Broncos (5-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (9-4)

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs

This contest is predicted to be a snowy event at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, something the Denver Broncos shouldn’t be bothered by. It will

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) @ Detroit Lions (3-9-1)

Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In what will be remembered (or forgotten) as a lost season, Jamies Winston and the Buccaneers have suddenly won four of their last five games, and have a chance to finish at, or even above .500 this season. Has Winston done enough to earn a new contract in Tampa next season? Well, in those four wins, Winston threw seven interceptions – not exactly a confidence builder if you’re the Buccs GM. These last few games could be the determining factor in whether the front office allows the Winston-Arians experiment to continue, and for how long.

a

Cleveland Browns (6-7) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-9-1)

Winner: Cleveland Browns

After a promising three-game winning streak back in October, the Cardinals have lost six straight while surrendering an average of over 30 points per game. The Cardinals waived veteran LB Terrell Suggs before his first season with the team was even completed. The defense has been nothing short of horrendous, and will need to be rebuilt at the conclusion of the season. Offensively, there have been flashes of brilliance from Kyler Murray, as well as some worrisome red flags when it comes to his ability to read defenses.

Baker Mayfield, for some unfathomable reason, decided to criticize the approach of his team’s medical staff in response to a question about teammate Odell Beckham Jr’s sports-hernia injury. It was another gaffe to add the list for Mayfield, in what seems to be an innate quality to want to speak whatever is on his mind, optics be damned. As one of 32 quarterbacks in the league, what you say, and how you carry yourself matters… a lot. Before Mayfield can learn how to consistently win on the field, he must learn how to away from it. That being said, Baker won’t need his mouth the beat the feeble Cardinals defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9) @ Oakland Raiders (6-7)

Winner: Oakland Raiders

This season may not end up how Jon Gruden would have wanted, but there’s no doubt he and GM Mike Mayock have begun to build the foundation for a competitive football team. Whether they can follow that up next year is a question for another time. For the Raiders this season, there have been some sky-high high’s, mixed with some disappointing low’s. This will be the final home game in Oakland before the Raiders relocate to Las Vegas, a monumental event in NFL history, to say the least. It would be more than fitting to see Gruden hugging the fans of Oakland after a hard-earned victory, with all the love, passion, and respect they have for each other, one last time.

Minnesota Vikings (9-4) @ San Diego Chargers (5-8)

Winner: Minnesota Vikings

It may not be Phillip Rivers’ best season, but the veteran still loves to compete as much as anyone that has ever played the game. His exchange with Jags DE Yannick Ngakoue was classic Rivers trash-talking material, and one for the career-reals. After Ngakoue took exception to Rivers yelling into his ear in excitement following a 93-yard passing touchdown, Rivers emphatically reminded Ngakoue that, despite his complaint, he will, in fact, continue to yell into his ear. Rivers can do all the yelling he wants in this one, but with Dalvin Cook in the backfield, the Vikings offense will be

Los Angeles Rams (8-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-7)

Winner: Los Angeles Rams

These teams have been trending in opposite directions, and with the Eagles breathing down the Cowboys’ necks tied at six wins, there is perhaps more pressure on Dallas to win than at any point since their last Super Bowl victory in ’94. Yes, it’s that serious. Being that the situation is that serious and that Dallas has not responded well to pressure this season, this could be another ugly week of questioning in Big D. Now, losing this game does not mean the Cowboys’ hopes of winning the division are lost. The biggest game of their season, win or lose this week, will come against Philly next Sunday.

On the other hand, Sean McVay has the Rams in playoff mode already, and they’ve become one of tougher teams on both sides of the ball once again. The massive victory in Seattle last week cannot be understated in its importance for this team, and their bid to become back-to-back NFC Champions. If they’re going to make another run in the postseason, they’ll need to win this game, and at least one of the next two games. McVay has proven to know what buttons to press for his offense get to the next level late in a season, while Jason Garrett’s voice is currently being questioned from all angles.

Atlanta Falcons (4-9) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-2)

Winner: San Francisco 49ers

In this year’s version of the legendary shootout between the Chiefs and Rams on Monday night Football from last season, San Fran pulled off an incredible 48-46 victory over the Saints. The win was not without cost, however, as Niners offense was dealt a huge blow with the loss of center Weston Richburg for the remainder of the season. By all accounts, Richburg is a key component and major leader on the O-line, and will be tough to replace. It may not show up against the struggling Falcons this week, but could come back to haunt them come playoffs.

While the end result this season will be disappointing for ATL, there’s no doubt the Falcons are playing hard for their leader and mentor, head coach Dan Quinn. It’s a testament to Quinn’s likeability, and the stamp he’s put on this organization – transforming them from NFC South’s soft sister to a Super Bowl contender. Owner Arthur Blank would be smart to consider keeping Quinn for a long-term deal, as there are so few candidates with that kind of experience under their belt. Think Bill Cowher with the Steelers, who became the coach in 1992 and didn’t win a Super Bowl until 2006, losing in the AFC Championship three times in between.

Buffalo Bills (9-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)

Winner: Buffalo Bills

While Josh Allen may have come up short in a tough duel against Lamar Jackson, it will undoubtedly be a great learning experience for Allen going forward. In a way, it was an up-close and personal view of the kind of quarterback Allen aspires to be. While he may not have Jackson’s off-the-charts speed, he can deal a different caliber of blow when he lowers his shoulder than his draft-mate from Baltimore. Speaking of blows, the Bills defense has been dealing them out all season long, and with an inexperienced Devlin Hodges on the other side, pressure will be the name of the game.

The Steelers have won seven of their last nine games, three with Hodges starting under center. The Black and Gold will get their two top offensive weapons back in WR JuJu Smith-Schuster and RB James Conner. Everything sounds pretty positive coming into this matchup, right? Sure. A closer look, however, reveals the quality of their opponents throughout their wins has been subpar. That’s not to take anything away from the job the Steelers and Mike Tomlin have done up to this point, every win the NFL is hard-earned. Late in the season, it comes to splitting some hairs, and this is an extremely close game. While “Duck” Hodges has impressed in his short cameo, the slight advantage goes to the Bills and the more battle-tested Josh Allen.

Indianapolis Colts (6-7) @ New Orleans Saints (10-3)

Winner: New Orleans Saints

Saints QB Drew Brees will walk on to the field this Monday just three touchdowns away from breaking Peyton Manning’s all-time record of 539 passing TDs. The last time Brees was playing on Monday Night Football with a record of this magnitude on the line, he became the all-time leader in passing yards. It may be this week or it may be next, but no doubt Brees and the Saints would like to get the record out of the way, and focus on the bigger picture. The Saints still have a shot at the first seed in the NFC, and there’s no place like home for New Orleans. The Colts have lost their gusto from early in the season, and should eventually falter under the super-pressurized environment under the dome.

While Indy surprised early on, ultimately the transition from Luck to Brissett at QB was an added task to what is an already brutal road to the postseason. Just days before the start of the season, the Colts signed Jacoby Brissett to a two-year, 30-million dollar contract. The deal still looks to be a bargain, but not the absolute steal as it did several weeks into the season when the Colts began 6-2. Receiver T.Y. Hilton is expected to return, which could make things more interesting in this game.

Note: This page is updated throughout the week to account for the latest injury updates and news around the league.