NFL Pick’ems: Week 11

Last Week’s Picks: 4-9

Overall Picks Record: 86-63

Holy upsets, it was a crazy week in the NFL! An interesting tidbit: a bet of $100 on almost all the underdogs (excluding the Bengals) would have netted close to $200,000. Last week’s picks here weren’t so lucky.

Let’s get back on the horse!

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) @ Cleveland Browns (3-6)

Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

What a job Mike Tomlin has done with this Steelers team. So many changes, so many distractions… Yet here they are, right in the thick of it. This is a massive game not only for the Steelers’ playoff hopes, but for their overall momentum. Winning two or three games in a row is good but not all that uncommon. You string together five wins a row, which the Steelers can do with a victory here, and you’re one of the hottest teams in the league. It means your team has a huge wave of momentum behind it that, once lost, is incredibly difficult to regain. Venture to say that is the pivotal game of the season for Pittsburgh. With a win, they’re looking at a real shot at the postseason. A loss, and it becomes a difficult uphill battle with almost no margin for error.

The Browns technically kept their season alive with a win over the Bills last week, but it’s a bit of long shot as they would need to win out in all likelihood. However, looking at their schedule, it’s not an entirely improbable proposition. If they can manage another win over the Ravens, who they beat soundly back in Week 4, the rest of their games appear to “winnable”. Of course, it all starts with this one. The Browns have seen the return of some key players in recent weeks including CB Greedy Williams back from injury, and RB Kareem Hunt from suspension. Sadly, it might not be enough. In the choice between a Super Bowl-winning Mike Tomlin, or a rookie Freddie Kitchens in a critical November game… it has to be Tomlin.

New York Jets (2-7) @ Washington Redskins (1-8)

Winner: New York Jets

In a presser after the Jets’ 34-27 win over the Giants, Sam Darnold was talking about the playoffs. To quote the great Jim Mora, “Playoffs? Don’t talk about – playoffs?! You kiddin’ me? Playoffs?” At 2-7, that should pretty much be everyone’s reaction hearing Darnold’s mention of the postseason at this juncture. The Jets may win a game this week over the hapless Redskins, but any talk of the playoffs should be thrown out the window. Jets Owner Christopher Johnson strangely said that Adam Gase will be back in 2020 before seeing how the rest of the season goes. This can go two ways: galvanize a team behind their head coach, or put unnecessary pressure under which they eventually fold. Considering their opponent this week, we’ll go with galvanizing.

The Redskins interim head coach Bill Callahan has named Dwayne Haskins as the starter for the remainder of the season. It’s been a mixed bag so far for Haskins. The rookie QB sounds generally intelligent and veritably competent in a football sense in his interviews and press conferences, but that has not yet translated to the field. Something should be said about how now-fired head coach Jay Gruden did, or rather did not develop Haskins in a timely manner. It’s questionable whether there was even a genuine attempt on Gruden’s part, as he reportedly never wanted the Redskins to pick Haskins in the first place. As a result, Haskins has looked unprepared for the Pro game. The biggest worry for Washington is that Haskins ends up as another Jamies Winston – good enough to keep around for a few years, but never good enough to win a Super Bowl.

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5) @ Indianapolis Colts (5-4)

Winner: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts took an ugly 16-12 loss to the Dolphins last week with Brian Hoyer filling in for the injured Jacoby Brissett. With receivers T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell ruled out, it could be tough going for the Colts offense again this week. However, Brissett is ready to return, so it can’t be any worse than it was last week under Hoyer. Without Hilton to keep defenses honest, opponents have begun to figure out the Colts’ straightforward rushing attack and focus on stifling it by stacking the box with eight players. They’ll see that look often again this week against the Jags, so it’ll be up to Brissett to improvise and make some plays out of the pocket to get this offense going again.

While “Minshew Mania” was short-lived, man, was it awesome. Something tells us, deep in our mustaches, that we have yet to see the last of Gardner Flint Minshew whether with the Jags or another franchise. Nick Foles is back after suffering a broken collarbone in the first quarter of Week 1. Foles should be an upgrade over Minshew in terms of accuracy on intermediate-to-deep throws, but is a downgrade in mobility outside of the pocket. Part of Minshew’s magic was his ability to make plays with his legs – Foles is a traditional pocket passer with above-average pocket awareness and maneuverability. All this means that the Jags offense has a lot of adjusting to do this week, which usually not conducive to success.

Buffalo Bills (6-3) @ Miami Dolphins (2-7)

Winner: Buffalo Bills

Much has been said about the Dolphins supposed to attempts to tank this season, and that still reasonably applies to the front office considering all the moves they’ve made over the past several months. But it’s clear Brian Flores and the players are still fighting for, and admirably achieving victory. Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t been amazing but he’s been a steady presence and has also made some critical plays with his legs late in games. The defense has played well over the two wins, albeit against some rather futile offenses in the Jets and the Brian Hoyer-led Colts.

The Bills offense struggles with consistency, but they should find plenty of room to operate their power-running offense in this matchup. Josh Allen has cleaned up some of the mistakes and looks to be making better decisions as the season progresses. The defense continues to be one of the most smothering units in the league, and the Bills need a win to keep pace in the AFC Wild Card race. This should be a fairly comfortable victory.

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) @ Detroit Lions (3-5-1)

Winner: Dallas Cowboys

The weaknesses of the Cowboys defense have been exploited by several teams this year. That was the case last week in their 28-24 loss to the Vikings. The Dallas defense is ranked 6th-best against the pass, but this is a case of a misleading statistic. They’ve faced three of the four worst passing offenses in the league (NYJ, WAS, MIA), plus the Giants with Eli Manning. Is it really any secret where the strength of their defense lies? (hint: in their front-seven and pass-rush). Safety Jeff Heath has been a liability in coverage for years, but continues to start for lack of a better option. It’s no surprise why the Cowboys were interested in acquiring S Earl Thomas from the Seahawks before the Ravens beat them to it in the off-season. While the offense has had some periods of struggle, the unit leads the league in yards per game, so it tough to lay a ton of blame on Dak and company.

Matthew Stafford continues to deal with small fractures in his back, so Driskel will get the start again this week. The good news: Darius Slay is expected to play through a neck injury. The bad news: it takes a group effort to contain Amari Cooper, and Detroit is surrendering the 5th-most passing yards per game. With Zeke Elliot looking to get his numbers up, it could be asking too much for Detroit’s defense to contain both of them. The trade of S Quandre Diggs was a white flag in many ways, one that upset his former teammate Slay. Diggs’ services certainly would be useful in a game like this, so Slay’s frustration is understandable.

Houston Texans (6-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (7-2)

Winner: Baltimore Ravens

What an incredibly juicy matchup this is between two of the most dynamic young quarterbacks in the game. Their styles are as different as they are dangerous. Deshaun Watson prefers to dice teams up with a precise aerial attack, while Lamar Jackson brings a ground game from the QB position like we’ve never seen before. Real quick – the relationship displayed between Jackson and Ravens coach Jon Harbaugh is truly remarkable. You can see the bond, the unwavering trust they have in each other to make the right decision in their sideline conversations (thank you, NFL Films!) It’s quite special and could be the beginnings of a unique relationship, one that will be remembered in the annals NFL history.

But back to the matchup – both teams are coming in hot, with the Ravens on a five-game winning streak, and the Texans having won four of their last five games. With Jackson leading the way, the Ravens offense looks nearly unstoppable. They lead the league in points (33.3) and rushing yards (197) per game. . On top of the damage Jackson has done with his legs, he had his first game with a perfect passer rating (158.3) in the win over the Bengals last week. Everyone knew Jackson can run, but it’s been his accuracy while throwing on the run that has been the most impressive development in his game. It’s not that Jackson was incapable of making the kinds of weird-angle-sidearm throws he’s been making, but it’s a skill that usually takes years to develop – Jackson is just 22 years old.

On the other side, the Texans are coming off a bye week and a win over Jacksonville. Watson has been spectacular on all fronts – performance, leadership, poise, you name it. Carlos Hyde had his best game of the season wtih 160 yards on 19 carries in the Texans 26-9 win over the Jags. Defensively, the Texans are third-best at stopping the run, but that was with J.J. Watt for most of the season. The Patriots top-ranked defense couldn’t solve Jackson, so it’s difficult to believe the Texans, without their leader and best defensive player, have a great shot.

Atlanta Falcons (2-7) @ Carolina Panthers (5-4)

Winner: Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons front office has decided to evaluate head coach Dan Quinn on a week-to-week basis, and the Falcons responded with a shocking upset over the Saints. The offense was solid, with two touchdowns and four field goals, but it was the performance of the defense that was most impressive. Led by DT Grady Jarrett, the defense sacked Drew Brees six times and held the Saints to nine points total. They’ll face a much different challenge in Christian McCaffrey and the run-heavy Panthers offense.

Kyle Allen has shown some holes in his game, which should be expected for a QB with less than a season’s worth of games under his belt. The potential Allen has shown has been impressive, though, as he’s completed an array of throws in his short career. As well as the defense has played, they don’t have anyone that matches up effectively against Julio Jones. Atlanta seems to have regained some momentum from their win over the Saints, while the Panthers have lost two of their last three. Expect a close divisional battle with the more experienced QB, Matt Ryan, making the deciding plays at the end.

New Orleans Saints (7-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6)

Winner: New Orleans Saints

The Saints were blitzed by Atlanta last week at home, a rare occurrence. So rare that it was the first time together that Drew Brees and Sean Payton have been held under 10 points at home… ever. While it can’t just be chalked up as a fluke, it’s even more unlikely that happens two weeks in a row. Michael Thomas is on a record-breaking pace with 86 receptions through nine games, and Alvin Kamara is a week healthier after returning from knee and ankle injuries. The offense will get a respite this week facing the soft Buccs defense.

The Buccs give up the most points (31) and the 8th-most yards (378) per game. With a hungry Saints team coming into town looking for redemption, the realistic path to victory for the Buccs is winning in a shootout. However, with Marshon Lattimore to match up against Mike Evans, the Saints defense already has an advantage most teams do not. Lattimore is one of a handful of corners in the league that can physically match up with Evans. The balance favors New Orleans in this game, and it would not be surprising to see a double-digit victory.

Denver Broncos (3-6) @ Minnesota Vikings (7-3)

Winner: Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings upset the favored Cowboys 28-24, and come into this matchup as one of the hottest teams in the league having won seven of their last nine games. With Adam Thielen still on the mend, the Vikings fed Dalvin Cook with 33 touches, which he turned into 183 total yards and a touchdown. The defense held Zeke Elliot to just 2.4 YPC on 47 rushing yards, then sealed the game with a stop on 4th-and-5. While Brandon Allen impressed in the Broncos 24-19 victory over Cleveland, more needs to be seen before picking him to beat a very sound Vikings team.

Arizona Cardinals (3-6-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (8-1)

Winner: San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers tasted defeat for the first time this season in a thrilling 28-25 OT loss to the Seahawks. They largely have themselves to blame, as kicker Chase Mclaughlin shanked a potential game-winning field goal in extra time; the Seahawks won the game on the subsequent drive. Still, the Niners were a missed kicked away from beating the arguable MVP in Russell Wilson, and moving to 9-0 on the season. The defensive line continues to harass QBs, while Richard Sherman has been a rock in the secondary.

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals made a game of their first meeting with San Francisco just two weeks ago, losing narrowly at home by a score of 28-25. In the last two games Murray has 5 TDs to one interception, but to no avail, as the Cardinals lost both games due to a number of factors. There’s a timeout that Kliff Kingsbury wishes he hadn’t taken, and the Cardinals might have won their first matchup in Arizona. It’s the little things that make a big difference, and right now the Cardinals are still finding themselves, while the Niners are a finely-tuned side.

New England Patriots (8-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)

Winner: New England Patriots

No Alshon Jeffrey, no DeSean Jackson, and an ailing Jason Peters – this spells disaster for the Eagles offense facing the league’s top-ranked defense. Carson Wentz will have to pull out some of the magic that made him a household name among NFL fans a couple of seasons ago – slipping out of sure tackles, rolling out of the pocket, throwing dimes on the run, etc. The Eagles defensive line will be the determining factor in this game. After a slow start, Brandom Graham and Fletcher Cox have regained their dominant forms, and the Patriots have had issues in pass protection this season. With the return CBs Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills, the Eagles secondary should see much tighter coverage than they’ve been able to get over the first half of the season.

The Patriots rarely lose back-to-back games, especially when they were handily beaten the week before. Nobody does vengeance better than the Pats, and this week they were still talking about the pain of their Super Bowl defeat to the Eagles in 2018. Brady did say, however, that it strengthened them in the end, as they ended up winning it the next year. Brady is on a similar pace as last season with 14 TDs and 5 INTS. His completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating are all slightly down, though. There have definitely been some missed passes this year from Brady that we’re not accustomed to seeing, and could have a lot to do with the abnormal amount of pressure defenses have been able to generate.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-9) @ Oakland Raiders (5-4)

Winner: Oakland Raiders

The videos of Jon Gruden celebrating with the fans of Oakland are something else. With the Raiders moving to Las Vegas next year, it’s unfortunate to know that relationship will be a thing of the past. Gruden has the Raiders playing above expectations, and well in the hunt in the AFC with a win this week. Derek Carr is back in top form and has been showing another level of leadership this season. You can see the Raiders believe in Carr to make the play in the clutch moments – and why not? He’s completing 70.8% of his passes and is sporting a 104.4 passer rating, both career-highs. He should be able to pad those stats a bit against the porous Bengals D on the way to a 6-4 record.

Chicago Bears (4-5) @ Los Angeles Rams (5-4)

Winner: Chicago Bears

Mitch Trubisky had his best game of the year last week in the Bears 20-13 win over the Lions. He finished with three touchdowns while completing 70% of his passes. The problem for Trubisky has been consistency, as he’s failed to throw a touchdown in five out of his eight games this season. Still, his three-touchdown performance could be the spark that gets him going for the rest of the way. The defense has been good, but not as dominant nor consistent as expected (looking at you Khalil Mack). With the offensive line issues the Rams have had this season, anything less than a couple of sacks would be disappointing.

Jared Goff had his worst game of the season in the Rams 17-12 loss to the Steelers, finishing with 243 yards and two interceptions. It’s the kind of game the Rams could ill afford to drop, particularly with the 49ers and Seahawks pulling away with each passing week. The offense is a far cry from the creative, precise machine we saw last season, largely due to Goff’s turnovers and Todd Gurley’s continuing limited role. Jalen Ramsey has been an excellent addition to the defense as the Rams have given up just 12.3 points per game since the trade – though the competition hasn’t been the strongest (ATL, CIN, PIT).

Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) @ Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs

While Kansas City got its superstar QB back, it didn’t translate into a victory as the Titans and Ryan Tannehill – yes, Tannehill – defeated Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last week. A blocked field goal sealed the 35-32 loss, and the Chiefs’ division lead dropped to just one game over the Raiders. Mahomes looked healthy, throwing for nearly 450 yards and three touchdowns, and should be ready to battle against a tough Chargers defense. In this critical divisional matchup, it will be up to the Chiefs defense to pull their end of the rope, and shut down Philip Rivers the struggling Chargers offense.

Yes, the struggle has been real for Rivers this season, coming into this game with 14 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. His performance last week in a must-win game was a team-killer. His three interceptions, including to end the game with the Chargers just needing a field goal to win, were too much to overcome on the road against a solid Raiders team. What little faith remained for the Chargers hopes essentially vanished last week, and will likely end in ugly fashion against the Chiefs.

Note: This page is updated throughout the week to account for the latest injury updates and news around the league.