NFL Pick’ems: Week 14

Last Week’s Picks: 9-7

Overall Pick’s Record: 117-77

Ok, when the Dolphins and Bengals win in the same week, you know things are getting wacky! The phrase “any given Sunday” was in full effect, making for an exciting set of outcomes. Things are about to get even more exciting as we near the postseason.

Let’s have at it!

Dallas Cowboys (6-6) @ Chicago Bears (6-6)

Winner: Chicago Bears

This is a pivotal matchup between two teams that had NFC Championship aspirations coming into the season. Both have come up severely short of those expectations so far, and for one of these teams, this game could ultimately decide the fate of their seasons. Let’s start with the Cowboys, for whom the past few weeks have been filled with outside noise and criticism. The owner, Jerry Jones, hasn’t done much to quiet that noise by commenting on Jason Garrett’s status as head coach following every game. After losing to the Bills at home on Thanksgiving, the noise has become deafening, most of it calling for Garrett’s ouster.

The thing is, if you’re going to fire a coach who has a winning record, like the Panthers did earlier this week with Ron Rivera, you better be damn sure you can find a better option within the next year. Garrett has his shortcomings, no doubt. However, there is not a coach available that can come in and immediately fix all of Dallas issues, particularly on the back end of their defense. Their deficiency has been masked due to a schedule filled with opponents struggling with consistency in their passing game. It comes down to a talent issue, and with or without Garrett, the Cowboys have a problem in that department as it pertains to the secondary. Also, the absence of LB Leighton Vander Esch has been hugely impactful, more so with the visible decline of Sean Lee.

For Chicago, the disappointment has largely come on the offensive side. The positive news from last week’s 24-20 win over Detroit was Mitch Trubisky’s three-touchdown performance. Not only did the Bears need each one of those touchdowns to win, it was the kind of performance that can go a long way in building the confidence of a struggling sophomore QB. As their records suggest, this game can’t be much closer in competitiveness. The Cowboys appear to be in the middle of an unstoppable downward spiral, one that will end with a new head coach next year. The Bears defense, along with Matt Nagy’s offensive prowess gives Chicago a slight edge.

Indianapolis Colts (6-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7)

Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccs jumped out to a 25-0 lead behind a dominant defensive performance, one that forced the Jaguars to bench their 88-million dollar starting QB. If only the Buccs could display that kind of competent football more consistently. Jamies Winton didn’t put up great numbers (238 yards, no touchdowns) but he did take care of the football. These last few games could be the deciding factor in whether or not Tampa Bay decides to offer Winston a deal to re-sign, as he will become a UFA at season’s end. This is a prime opportunity for Winston to showcase for the Buccs, or another team, that he’s a changed man when it comes to protecting the football.

Meanwhile, the Colts are still a physically battered group that appears to be on the verge of collapse. They’ll be without T.Y. Hilton again, as well as several defensive backs for this game. The Colts have done a complete 180 from season’s start, and would be all but eliminated from contention with a loss this week. After an MVP-worthy start, Jacoby Brissett has struggled without his top receiver. Over the past five games, Brissett has thrown just two touchdowns to three interceptions, a couple of which were of the ugly variety. Honestly, with some better luck injury-wise, this team could have been a playoff contender, but it wasn’t it meant to be this season.

Baltimore Ravens (10-2) @ Buffalo Bills (9-3)

Winner: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have overcome the league’s first and second-best ranked defenses (Patriots, 49ers). Now, they will face the third-ranked defense, and perhaps one of the last defenses capable of containing Lamar Jackson (though a matchup versus the Saints D would also be intriguing). The dynamic Jackson needs just 63 yards to break Michael Vick’s single-season rushing record by a QB – something Jackson could accomplish on any touch of the football this Sunday. More importantly, if Jackson is going to win this game, his connection with TE Mark Andrews will need to be at its best, as the Bills allow the fewest yards and touchdowns to the position of any defense.

The Bills are coming off one of their biggest wins in recent memory by beating the Cowboys 26-15 on Thanksgiving Day. Josh Allen has made noticeable strides this season, not only in protecting the ball, but in his overall accuracy. Allen completed a career-high 79% of his passes, making several impressive throws from inside and out of the pocket last week. Defensively, the Bills will have figure out how they want to defend against Jackson and the read-option attack. Will they favor a man-to-man approach with a spy, or will they play more of a zone defense to hopefully limit the Ravens’ big plays? It’s a pick-your-poison scenario for Buffalo that will likely end in a close defeat.

Detroit Lions (3-8-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (8-4)

Winner: Minnesota Vikings

Without RB Dalvin Cook for the majority of the game, Kirk Cousins was unable to keep pace with Russell Wilson in the Vikings’ 37-30 loss to the Seahawks. It was another primetime loss for Cousins, bringing his record in nationally televised games to 0-8. While he managed to throw two garbage-time touchdowns, turning his line into a respectable performance, Cousins played below average for three-quarters of the game. It’s an all-too-familiar sight, one that should have Vikings fans feeling extremely cautious heading into the postseason.

While David Blough had an impressive NFL debut, the Vikings will have 100% more film on the rookie to prepare with than the Bears did. With Matthew Stafford intending to return next season, Blough is, at best, playing for a backup job in Detroit or elsewhere. Head coach Matt Patricia is in the second year of a four-year deal, but could be playing for his job next season. He wouldn’t be the first standout coordinator to fail in his first stint as a head coach, particularly out of the Belichick coaching tree.

Washington Redskins (3-9) @ Green Bay Packers (9-3)

Winner: Green Bay Packers

The Redskins finally looked like the team they had expected to be coming into the season – a hard-nosed, tough unit on both sides of the ball, with a primarily run-heavy offense. That’s something former head coach Jay Gruden never fully grasped. With one of the G.O.A.T.’s at his disposal in Arian Peterson, Gruden often preferred to air it out with QB Case Keenum. Well, no more of that, says interim head coach Bill Callahan. The Redskins have been stuffing the ball down the throats of their foes behind a two-headed monster duo of Peterson, and second-year back Derrius Guice. Finally healthy after an injury-plagued start, Guice racked up a career-high 129 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

After their evisceration at the hands of the 49ers, the Packers got back on track with a victory last week. While there are no “easy” wins in the NFL, beating the struggling Giants was ultimately an expected outcome for Green Bay. There is a lingering concern that the Packers could be a paper tiger – they have a great record with a future Hall of Fame QB. However, against a top-tier opponent like the Niners or Saints, there becomes a visible gap in quality. The Redskins are not a top-tier opponent, and with Davante Adams back to full health, Aaron Rodgers and the offense should be humming once again.

Denver Broncos (4-8) @ Houston Texans (8-4)

Winner: Houston Texans

After seven tries, Deshaun Watson and Bill O’Brien finally did it – they finally beat Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in a football game. Could this be the win that gets the Texans over the proverbial hump? Well, not exactly. You see, the Patriots are quickly losing their status as King of the AFC, with Ravens and Chiefs ready to snatch the crown. Besides that, beating the Pats in a regular-season game and beating them in a playoff game in Foxboro are two different things. Until that day actually comes, the Pats still reign over Houston. The good news is: for the first time, Deshaun Watson looked like he understood the Patriots’ scheme, and how they want to limit his connection with DeAndre Hopkins. Watson took what the Patriots defense gave him, spreading the ball around with touchdowns to Kenny Stills, Duke Johnson, and Darren Fells.

The Broncos squeezed out a win thanks to a 53-yard field goal off the foot of placekicker Brandon McManus. Second-round QB Drew Lock earned his first victory in his first NFL start, and the Broncos will let the kid ride out the season. Lock showed solid accuracy and above-average pocket awareness for a rookie. While RB Phillip Lindsay has been churning out decent yardage all season, but it’s been a bit of a disappointment numbers-wise for the hard-nosed runner. Coming into this game, Lindsay has just two games with over 100 total yards, compared to five at this point last year. The Broncos defense will have to be the star of the show if they’re going to steal this game from Houston.

San Francisco 49ers (10-2) @ New Orleans Saints (10-2)

Winner: New Orleans Saints

Another “Bulls-eye” for the schedulers! A battle between two .800 winning percentile teams is always a welcome treat indeed, especially this late into the season. The Niners were defeated, but probably not humbled by the Ravens last week. And why should they be? They lost on a last-second field goal to the best team in the NFL, which resides in another conference. This game against the Saints is the test for who has the upper-hand in the NFC, as the first seed is up for grabs in this game.

The obvious premiere matchup of this game is Michael Thomas going head-to-head with Richard Sherman, a battle between two All-Pro competitors playing some of their best ball. It will be interesting to see if Sherman travels with Thomas, or if the Niners decide to throw some different looks at him. The Saints receiver has been virtually unstoppable, and has a chance to break the single-season reception record set by Marvin Harrison (143).

These two teams are so close the home team would get the slight edge either way, making this game all the more important in a potential preview of the NFC Championship. Drew Brees and the Saints have been here before, Jimmy Garoppolo and many of the 49ers have not. While San Fran undoubtedly owns the near future, the Saints are still the class of the conference until further notice.

Cincinnati Bengals (1-11) @ Cleveland Browns (5-7)

Winner: Cleveland Browns

For weeks, Bengals Head Coach Zac Taylor had been going back to the same well, and each time found no water at the bottom. He tried everything; he even tried building a new well in a different spot – still, no water. With time running out, the situation was looking dire. Finally, last Sunday, Taylor went back to the old “Andy Dalton” well at QB and the veteran of nine seasons rewarded the rookie head coach with his first win. DE Carlos Dunlap, another Bengals lifer and mainstay on the D-line since 2010, turned in a career-performance with three sacks and the Bengals shocked the Jets, 22-6. It may not have been the prettiest of victories but when you’re the last winless team in the league, as the Bengals were, it had to have felt like a life-saving gulp.

For the Browns, the disappointment came to a head last week in a 20-13 loss to the Steelers. It was Baker Mayfield’s chance to reverse decades of Cleveland getting beat up by their bigger, stronger brother from Pittsburgh. In hindsight, perhaps it was asking too much of Mayfield and head coach Freddie Kitchens to find a way to beat… Devlin Hodges? No disrespect to the “Duck”, but sheesh, that’s a loss they’ll want to expunge from their records. A win over the Bengals is just the start of a long list of things that need to happen for the Browns’ season not be over by week’s end.

Carolina Panthers (5-7) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-9)

Winner: Atlanta Falcons

On a scale from the Bengals’ Mike Brown to the Cowboys’ Jerry Jones, it seems Panthers owner David Tepper leans heavily towards the “hands-on” end of the spectrum when it comes to running a franchise/business. Just two years after buying the team and rough 5-7 start to the season, Tepper decided to relieve head coach, and revered figure in Carolina, Ron Rivera. “Riverboat” Ron is arguably the greatest coach in Panthers history along with John Fox, so it was nothing less than a momentous decision. Whether it was the right call, only time can tell, but it’s clear major changes are on the way in Carolina.

The Falcons, on the other hand, still have a head coach to fight for. While their season may be all but over, it’s unclear whether Dan Quinn’s time in Atlanta will be as well. For now, he’s being evaluated on a game-to-game basis, according to the NFL’s Ian Rapoport. Julio Jones will return this week looking for a strong finish what’s been a subpar season, by his elite standards. With both Jones and QB Matt Ryan signed through 2023, the veteran duo will need to show they can still be the pillars of a winning football team – one that was an overtime score away from bringing Atlanta its first Lombardi Trophy.

Miami Dolphins (3-9) @ New York Jets (4-8)

Winner: New York Jets

It’s December, the Dolphins season has been over for weeks, yet “Fitzmagic” has us wrapped around his finger one last time. He may not be the best, or the most athletic quarterback you ever saw, but be damned if you find a man that loves playing the game more than Ryan Joseph Fitzpatrick. Seriously, the guy deserves an ode. Facing a desperate Eagles team led by a highly touted former-first-round QB, the seventh-round, 37-year old journeyman put up 365 yards, three TDs, and 113.1 passer rating.

Unfortunately, having two good games in a row – that’s just not how Fitzy rolls. He has to keep people… guessing, let’s say. So, facing a stout Jets defense that would be worthy of a playoff team (if the Jets had a less anemic offense), Fitzpatrick is liable to turn the ball over a few times.

While the Jets took an embarrassing loss to the Bengals last week. it wasn’t in the usually suspected manner. Sam Darnold didn’t throw any picks – a positive – and the offense was decent yardage-wise. They just failed to score on their few opportunities. Back at home, the Jets get a slight edge over the Dolphins, if not only for the unpredictable wild card that is Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Los Angeles Chargers (4-8) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8)

Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars

In what is easily the most unlikeable matchup of the week, both teams will be looking to save face on a lost season. Jaguars Head Coach Doug Marrone has decided, for some unfathomable reason, to start a quarterback controversy despite the fact that his team has no chance to make the playoffs this season. Perhaps the only reason you would bench your 88-million dollar QB would be to showcase your backup for trade value, but the league has already gotten a good look at Gardner Minshew this season. In any case, it’s a puzzling move, one that is typical of a coach that will likely be looking for a new job in the near future.

The Chargers’ last-second loss to the Broncos, with Drew Lock making his first career start, was a new low point in what has been a disastrous season. Phillip Rivers has not looked right for several weeks in a row, and it’s tough to see things getting any better. The Chargers have been on the wrong end of several close losses this season, and another looks to be on the way this week.

Tennessee Titans (7-5) @ Oakland Raiders (6-6)

Winner: Tennesse Titans

While Ryan Tannehill has been the most significant reason for the Titans’ midseason turnaround, it was their defense that kept them in the game long enough to pull out a 31-17 victory over the Colts. Despite turning the ball over on the first offensive snap, the Titans showed great resilience throughout the game. While the offense was struggling to get things going, allowing six sacks of Tannehill, the defense kept the game within 10 points. That gave Tannehill the chance to strike – His 40-yard touchdown pass to receiver Kahlif Raymond sealed the game with just over three minutes left.

With Tannehill opening up the offense, RB Derrick Henry has averaged an absurd 140 rushing yards over the past four games, while scoring seven total touchdowns. In the last two seasons, there’s has been nobody better running the football in December than Henry. The Titans are a team nobody wants to face at the moment, especially a slumping Raiders club.

Derek Carr and the Raiders offense have hit a sleep-inducing rut, scoring a combined total of 12 points in their last two games. Rookie Josh Jacobs has continued to do his part, however, news came out that the running back has been playing with a fractured shoulder, and is questionable for this game. With the Titans missing starting CB Adoree Jackson, it will likely be up to Derek Carr to outduel the red-hot Tannehill in a must-win game for Oakland.

Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) @ New England Patriots (10-2)

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs

There’s so much at stake here for a regular-season game, with a lot more than a victory on the line in this matchup. A rematch of the AFC Championship, the Pats and Chiefs were the consensus top teams coming into the season before the Ravens started making themselves known. If not for an untimely offsides penalty, the Chiefs were on their way to defeating the Patriots and reaching the Super Bowl. You can be sure that the loss has been close on their minds all offseason, and they’ve been waiting for the chance at revenge.

With the struggles of the Patriots offense this season, it’s fair to say that this game will rely on the defense’s ability to confuse Patrick Mahomes – no easy task. In the second half of the AFC Championship, Mahomes and Andy Reid began to figure out the Pats’ defensive scheme, and took them to task for 31 points – an incredible 24 points coming in the fourth quarter alone. Meanwhile, the Chiefs defense has a different look with Steve Spagnuolo calling the shots, and suddenly the onus is on Tom Brady, not Mahomes, to perform up to snuff.

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-8-1)

Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

In the biggest game of the season, Mike Tomlin had his Steelers ready for the rematch against Cleveland. The offense was composed despite playing with the Steelers third-string QB, Devlin Hodges. The defense was sound and swarming, shutting down Nick Chubb and the Browns. These are a few reasons why Tomlin is in line for Coach of the Year, as his team controls their own destiny nearing the post-season. This will be the fourth-straight rookie head coach Tomlin will be matching wits against, and he’s outclassed each so of them far.

The jury is still out on Kliff Kingsbury, as the Cardinals took a major risk by hiring a coach with no previous experience at the pro level. While Kyler Murray has shown great potential in his inaugural season, it’s clear the rookie still needs some polishing, as he continues learning the nuances of the Pro game. What needs a considerable amount of polishing is the Cardinals defense – a unit that surrenders the most yards per game of any team in the league. They’ve actually taken a step back defensively from the horrid 3-13 performance last season. Veteran LB Terrell Suggs may finally be slowing down in his 17th season.

Seattle Seahawks (10-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (7-5)

Winner: Seattle Seahawks

The Rams are starting to ramp up the usage of Todd Gurley, but the efficiency hasn’t quite been what it use to be. His YPC average looks solid at 4.1, but that would be his lowest total since 2016. Still, it’s good to see Gurley back in a semi-leading role for the Rams offense. Jared Goff and the passing game looked closer to the well-oiled machine from 2018 than it has in weeks. Goff finished with 424 yards and two touchdowns. WR Robert Woods had his best day of the season with 172 yards on 13 receptions, but still has yet to score a touchdown this season.

Meanwhile, Russell Wilson’s MVP pace has slowed a bit over the past few weeks. Wilson has had to do a lot of scrambling around lately, perhaps more than normal. It’s not always pretty, but what’s great about the Seahawks is their versatility. Sometimes it’s the offense putting the team on it’s back, sometimes the defense steps up to make the big play. One way or the other, it seems like by hook or by crook (see the “Fail Mary” play against Green Bay from 2015) Wilson and the offense are going to find a way to get it done in the fourth quarter. The Hawks narrowly won the first matchup between these teams, and could see a similar result this Sunday.

New York Giants (2-10) @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)

Winner: Philadelphia Eagles

Incredibly, despite all of their misgivings and missed opportunities, the Philadelphia Eagles can still win the NFC East. They’ll finish out the season with three divisional games – this week against the Giants, next week against the Redskins, and a Week 17 date with the Dallas Cowboys in a game that could decide the division. They need to win the first two, though, starting with a wounded Giants team.

The Giants will start Eli Manning after Daniel Jones suffered a lower-body injury. It could be one of the last appearances by Manning in a Giants uni – possibly one of the last, period. Manning has expressed that he’s not interested in being a backup, but it’s unlikely any team will sign him as a starter next season. So begins Eli’s farewell tour, probably a couple of seasons too late, but hey, better late than never.

Note: This page is updated throughout the week to account for the latest injury updates and news around the league.