NFL Pick’ems: 2019 Wild Card Edition – Sunday

Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ New Orleans Saints (13-3)

The Breakdown: This could end up being the highest-scoring game of the weekend as two of the league’s most dangerous offenses will square off the in the Superdome. The NFL’s current all-time leading passer, Drew Brees, has been trying to get his Saints back to the Super Bowl for a decade now. Last season, the refs blew a call that COULD have given the Saints another shot, but instead, it was the L.A. Rams that would advance, and eventually lose to the Patriots in Super Bowl LIII. The Saints and their fans feel like they’ve been wronged on several occasions prior to and after that infamous non-call, and have been on a bit of a revenge tour ever since. Furthermore, Brees was left off of the NFL Network’s Top 100 All-Time Team, a panel that was headed by Bill Belichick himself. It’s been widely considered a snub, but there is a reason why Brees passed up and it’s very clear.

What Brees has done not only for football but for the city of New Orleans has made him a legend, and a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. Still, there has always been something that has kept him as an honorable mention in most of the “greatest of all-time” QB conversations. The fact that Brees has played for nearly 20 seasons and could end up, with all due respect, just a single Super Bowl appearance and victory? Look, winning one is an incredible feat, something that 99% of QBs that ever played would kill to have accomplished. However, even Saints fans will tell you that the team’s post-season performances since that victory back in 2010 have also been incredibly disappointing. There is deserved blame to go around, particularly on the defensive side, for the shortcomings, but ultimately Brees is the quarterback and leader of the team.

Speaking of quarterbacks shouldering the blame, perhaps no QB has been more scrutinized over the past three seasons than the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins. Of course, the story that won’t go away for Cousins is essentially a determination of his character – that he, Cousins, does not have it within him to win a big game in a big moment. That, when all the chips are down and both sides know what is coming, Cousins will ultimately blink first. Nothing he has done in the past would suggest otherwise – his 0-9 record on Monday Night Football, his lousy record against winning teams, and his general lack of leadership in the face of adversity. Well, this Sunday, Cousins has a chance to put all of that to bed – for a while at least.

If Cousins can come into New Orleans against a Saints team of this caliber, in the state of mind which they are in, led by a legend like Brees… and win? The tune will quickly begin to shift to a more melodic theme for the next nine months, regardless of what happens in the next round. Captain Kirk will, of course, have significant help in his journey through time and space, trusty co-pilots to help steer him into the winning-worm hole. RB Dalvin Cook, the Spock of this story, has the ability of foresight, routinely dodging incoming defenders moments before they arrive. He’ll have to outperform the Saints’ dynamic RB Alvin Kamara, in a battle of two of the most electrifying tailbacks in the game.

The Deciding Matchup: WR Michael Thomas vs. CB Xavier Rhodes

If you look purely at the statistics for these two players this season… well, let’s just say it’s about as bad a matchup that there has been in the history of the league. No, really. The Saints’ Michael Thomas recently broke the single-season reception record with 149 catches on 185 targets, a completion percentage of 80.5. Meanwhile, Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes allowed an absurd 81.5 percent completion rate of passes thrown his way this season. 81.5 percent! That would probably be considered an average day for a quarterback… in practice!

Why, then, choose this matchup if it so lopsided? Because Rhodes, a high-level competitor of this league for several seasons prior to this, deserves a modicum of respect for his willingness to step up to a challenge, and face it head-on. Will the Vikings try to shy away from putting Rhodes on Thomas? Likely. Sooner or later, though, the Saints will find a way to get that matchup when they want it, and it will be up to Rhodes to prove he is still a worthy candidate.

Final Say: If Cousins shows up, this will be a highly competitive, thrillingly entertaining game to watch, ultimately ending in a close victory for a more balanced Saints team. If he doesn’t, things will get ugly for the Vikings and head coach Mike Zimmer, who’s seat has been steadily warming as the years of unmet expectations build up. The Vikings are a good team, a dangerous team… The Saints are a team of Championship mettle, ready to blaze a warpath for the legacy of their beloved quarterback. Cousins may win a big game someday, but it is not this day.

Winner: New Orleans Saints

Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)

The Breakdown: What an intriguing, difficult game to pick. These two teams – and quarterbacks – have had completely opposite beginnings and endings to their regular seasons. These clubs played each other in Week 12, where it seemed clear at the time after the game had ended, which direction the two were trending toward, respectively. The Seahawks and Russell Wilson were arguably the most dangerous team in the NFC for two-thirds of the season, and Wilson was the frontrunner for League MVP. The Eagles, after the 17-9 loss at home to the Hawks, had a record of 5-6 and looked to be hanging on for dear life. The next week, the Eagles lost the Dolphins, the low-point where essentially everyone had written Philly off as a contender. Sound familiar?

Well, five weeks later, and some inexplicable amount of help from the Dallas Cowboys, and here we are – the Eagles are hosting a game in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Despite being at home, Philly is once again embracing the role of the underdogs. The team is clearly all-in behind Carson Wentz, and hoping their supremely talented QB can lead them to the same glory that his former backup, Nick Foles, did just two seasons ago. While Foles unquestionably played a major role in their Super Bowl run from 2018, the defense was the backbone of the team – the glue that kept the then-84-year-old house of cards together, transforming it into a brick and mortar fortress for the first time in franchise history.

This Philly team is not the same group – they’re missing several key contributors to injury including WR Alshon Jeffery, RT Lane Johnson, and CB Ronald Darby. The secondary in particular has been inundated with missed games the entire season, leading to the Eagles’ sub-par, 19th-ranked pass defense. It’s largely by the excellent coaching job of Doug Pederson and his staff that the Eagles have somehow kept together a viable defense, in spite of all the adversity. But is it enough to stop an experienced, elite post-season QB like Russell Wilson?

The Deciding Matchup: QB Russell Wilson vs. DE Brandon Graham

Brandon Graham is the X-Factor for the Eagles defense; he’s the player that can single-handily make a game-changing, momentum-shifting play that ultimately wins a one-score contest for your team. He may not put up the most impressive stats from year-to-year with a career-high 9.5 sacks coming last season, but he has a knack for showing up when the defense most needs a play, as evidenced by his game-winning sack-fumble in the Super Bowl. The Seahawks offensive line has had its struggles in recent years, but no one is better than Wilson at making up for poor line play.

Final Say: This a razor-thin margin of quality between these teams. Both deploy some of the most efficient quarterback play in the NFC, but have defenses that have shown some serious vulnerability at times. Marshawn Lynch’s return has given Seattle not only a reason to believe this could be their year, but a legitimate push up the middle of the defense. If you can rush inside and be productive in the playoffs, the odds will be in your favor.

Winner: Seattle Seahawks